Modeling: Policy, Operations and Disease

Mathematical simulation models play a vital role in studying the health and financial outcomes of public health policies. Modeling involves the mathematical portrayal and study of systems that account for the observed behavior of real-world processes in health and medicine. These processes can be as simple as a disease spreading in body or as complex as an entire health-delivery system serving a diverse patient population.

Modeling makes it possible to generate evidence about how a system might behave under a broad variety of assumptions and conditions. This can be an effective and efficient tool for policy analysis when the system under study is complex or when running experiments under controlled conditions is impossible, unethical or expensive.

HIV/AIDS is a particular focus of the modeling activity at Yale. HPM faculty have published widely on the cost-effectiveness of testing, prevention, treatment, and care, both in the United States and around the world. HPM faculty are also using modeling techniques to identify effective and cost-effective approaches to control tuberculosis/HIV co-epidemics and meningitis outbreaks in Africa. Models are also being developed by our faculty to estimate the impact of different interventions on the prevalence of alcohol-exposed pregnancies in the U.S.