2023
Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis
Martinez L, Warren J, Harries A, Croda J, Espinal M, Olarte R, Avedillo P, Lienhardt C, Bhatia V, Liu Q, Chakaya J, Denholm J, Lin Y, Kawatsu L, Zhu L, Horsburgh C, Cohen T, Andrews J. Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis. The Lancet Public Health 2023, 8: e511-e519. PMID: 37393090, PMCID: PMC10323309, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00097-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis incidenceCase detection ratioIncidence rateCase detectionHigh tuberculosis incidence ratesGlobal tuberculosis control effortsIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateIncarcerated individualsTuberculosis control effortsTuberculosis case detectionTuberculosis casesNotification ratesNational incidenceTuberculosis notificationsGlobal incidenceHigh riskPrevalence estimatesNational estimatesWHO regionsIncidenceStudy periodMeta-regression frameworkTuberculosisNational Institute
2022
A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities
Chitwood M, Alves L, Bartholomay P, Couto R, Sanchez M, Castro M, Cohen T, Menzies N. A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities. PLOS Global Public Health 2022, 2: e0000725. PMID: 36962578, PMCID: PMC10021638, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000725.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPerson/yearTB incidenceCase notificationBurden estimatesIncident TB casesTB case notificationTB control strategiesDisease burden estimatesIncident TBUntreated TBTB casesTuberculosis burdenDisease burdenIncidence rateCase detectionRoutine dataDeath recordsMortality dataIncidenceSubnational estimatesDisease control resourcesBurdenHigh needTBFraction of individualsEvaluating spatially adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to reduce the incidence of gonococcal infection and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics
Yaesoubi R, Cohen T, Hsu K, Gift TL, St. Cyr SB, Salomon JA, Grad YH. Evaluating spatially adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to reduce the incidence of gonococcal infection and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics. PLOS Computational Biology 2022, 18: e1009842. PMID: 35139073, PMCID: PMC8863219, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009842.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence of gonorrhoeaTreatment guidelinesResistance prevalenceGonorrhea casesTreatment of gonorrheaNational surveillance systemPrevalence of resistanceTransmission dynamic modelGonococcal infectionGonorrhea treatmentMSM populationAntibiotic susceptibilityGonorrheaStandardized guidelinesSurveillance dataPrevalenceIncidenceAntibioticsPotential strategySurveillance systemAbsence of pointsGuidelinesCurrent strategiesEffective lifespanMen
2021
Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis
Yerramsetti S, Cohen T, Atun R, Menzies NA. Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2021, 10: e207-e215. PMID: 34895517, PMCID: PMC8800006, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00462-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPediatric tuberculosisTuberculosis incidenceStudy periodIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateReporting systemHigh-burden settingsGlobal tuberculosis burdenTuberculosis natural historyPediatric incidenceInfectious exposurePrompt diagnosisSubstantial morbidityTuberculosis burdenTuberculosis casesIncidence rateRisk factorsCase detectionGlobal incidenceProbability of infectionInfected individualsAge groupsNatural historyTuberculosisIncidenceTrends in Untreated Tuberculosis in Large Municipalities, Brazil, 2008–2017 - Volume 27, Number 3—March 2021 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Sanchez M, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Trends in Untreated Tuberculosis in Large Municipalities, Brazil, 2008–2017 - Volume 27, Number 3—March 2021 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2021, 27: 957-960. PMID: 33622464, PMCID: PMC7920690, DOI: 10.3201/eid2703.204094.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchBayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Sanchez M, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Glaziou P, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil. Epidemics 2021, 35: 100443. PMID: 33676092, PMCID: PMC8252152, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100443.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceFraction of casesUntreated active diseaseIncident TB casesTB control programsLocal disease burdenIncident TBActive diseaseTB burdenTB casesTB outcomesTB notificationsDisease burdenBayesian evidence synthesisCase detectionIncidenceEvidence synthesisAverage annual increaseControl programsBurdenAnnual rateAnnual increaseFraction of individualsAverage annual rateSources of bias
2020
Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California
Menzies NA, Parriott A, Shrestha S, Dowdy DW, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Marks SM, Hill AN, Winston CA, Asay GR, Barry P, Readhead A, Flood J, Kahn JG, Shete PB. Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 201: 356-365. PMID: 31626560, PMCID: PMC7464931, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.201907-1289oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceTB casesAdditional interventionsTuberculosis epidemiologyPublic health prioritizationTreatment of LTBIInfection control interventionsPotential intervention effectsLTBI testingTB servicesLTBI diagnosisLTBI prevalenceAverage annual declineEpidemiologic projectionsSustained reductionTreatment interventionsControl interventionsTB determinantsDefinitive dataIntervention effectsAnnual declineLocal transmissionIncidenceLTBIIntervention
2019
Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil
Mabud TS, de Lourdes Delgado Alves M, Ko AI, Basu S, Walter KS, Cohen T, Mathema B, Colijn C, Lemos E, Croda J, Andrews JR. Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil. PLOS Medicine 2019, 16: e1002737. PMID: 30677013, PMCID: PMC6345418, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002737.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence of TBPrison-based interventionsTB incidenceGeneral populationTB casesCox proportional hazards modelNew TB casesControl of tuberculosisProportional hazards modelPaucity of dataTime of incarcerationTB burdenTB screeningTB riskTB transmissionTB ratesTB epidemicAdministrative databasesCommunity incidenceTuberculosis epidemicHazards modelTB databaseIncidenceEpidemiological contextIntervention
2018
Spatially targeted screening to reduce tuberculosis transmission in high-incidence settings
Cudahy PGT, Andrews JR, Bilinski A, Dowdy DW, Mathema B, Menzies NA, Salomon JA, Shrestha S, Cohen T. Spatially targeted screening to reduce tuberculosis transmission in high-incidence settings. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2018, 19: e89-e95. PMID: 30554997, PMCID: PMC6401264, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30443-2.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis incidenceLow tuberculosis incidence settingsActive case-finding strategyHigh tuberculosis (TB) incidence countriesCase-finding strategyTuberculosis control strategiesHigh-incidence settingsInfectious causesIncidence settingsIncidence countriesTuberculosis transmissionTreatment outcomesActive screeningOnward transmissionSystematic reviewInfectious individualsInfectious periodTuberculosisIncidenceDeathCauseProximal causeHIVMixed resultsMortalityProgression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions
Menzies NA, Wolf E, Connors D, Bellerose M, Sbarra AN, Cohen T, Hill AN, Yaesoubi R, Galer K, White PJ, Abubakar I, Salomon JA. Progression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2018, 18: e228-e238. PMID: 29653698, PMCID: PMC6070419, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30134-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis transmission modelActive diseaseCumulative incidenceRisk factorsSystematic reviewNatural historyFeatures of epidemiologyDisease natural historyIndividual risk factorsTuberculosis natural historyEarliest available dateWeb of ScienceAnnual incidenceCochrane LibraryTuberculosis incidenceInclusion criteriaFuture tuberculosisLatent infectionInitial infectionIncidenceSubstantial proportionPopulation groupsAvailable dateInfectionDisease
2016
Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic
Kunkel A, Crawford FW, Shepherd J, Cohen T. Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic. AIDS 2016, 30: 2715-2723. PMID: 27782966, PMCID: PMC5089846, DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000001235.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid-resistant tuberculosisTB epidemicPreventive therapyEffective TB treatmentLatent TB infectionTB drug resistanceTransmission dynamic modelTB infectionMortality benefitTB treatmentHIV controlHIV incidenceTB incidenceTB transmissionCase findingDrug resistanceIncidenceTuberculosisInitial benefitPLHIVHIVTherapyEpidemicHigh burden of prevalent tuberculosis among previously treated people in Southern Africa suggests potential for targeted control interventions
Marx FM, Floyd S, Ayles H, Godfrey-Faussett P, Beyers N, Cohen T. High burden of prevalent tuberculosis among previously treated people in Southern Africa suggests potential for targeted control interventions. European Respiratory Journal 2016, 48: 1227-1230. PMID: 27390274, PMCID: PMC5512114, DOI: 10.1183/13993003.00716-2016.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh-burden settingsHigh TB prevalenceRecurrent tuberculosisExogenous reinfectionPrevalent tuberculosisTB prevalenceSuccessful treatmentHigh burdenImportant underlying mechanismHigh riskHigh incidenceControl interventionsTargeted interventionsTuberculosisUnderlying mechanismOne-thirdInterventionBurdenCape TownIndividualsReinfectionPrevalenceIncidenceDiseaseSetting
2015
Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis
Chindelevitch L, Menzies NA, Pretorius C, Stover J, Salomon JA, Cohen T. Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface 2015, 12: 20150146. PMID: 25878131, PMCID: PMC4424692, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0146.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAntiretroviral therapyTB incidenceTB burdenBurden of tuberculosisTuberculosis Control ProgrammePotential epidemiological impactART eligibilityMortality benefitTB programsHIV treatmentTB prevalenceTuberculosis incidenceEpidemiological impactART useProgram improvementHIVTreatment effectivenessIncidenceMortalityGreater reductionBurdenTBSaharan AfricaControl programsEligibilityThe prospective evaluation of the TB strain typing service in England: a mixed methods study
Mears J, Vynnycky E, Lord J, Borgdorff MW, Cohen T, Crisp D, Innes JA, Lilley M, Maguire H, McHugh TD, Woltmann G, Abubakar I, Sonnenberg P. The prospective evaluation of the TB strain typing service in England: a mixed methods study. Thorax 2015, 71: thoraxjnl-2014-206480. PMID: 25882538, DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2014-206480.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDiagnostic delayTB incidenceTB notification ratesProportion of infectionsMycobacterium tuberculosis diagnosisFalse-positive diagnosesCost-effectiveness analysisMixed-methods evaluationStrain typingTB programsProspective evaluationNotification ratesInfection increasesTuberculosis diagnosisPositive diagnosisPublic health dataComplex interventionsIncidenceMixed-methods studyRoutine laboratoryDiagnosisHealth dataCluster investigationsTypingMethods study
2014
Magnitude and sources of bias in the detection of mixed strain M. tuberculosis infection
Plazzotta G, Cohen T, Colijn C. Magnitude and sources of bias in the detection of mixed strain M. tuberculosis infection. Journal Of Theoretical Biology 2014, 368: 67-73. PMID: 25553967, PMCID: PMC7011203, DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.12.009.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMixed infectionsM. tuberculosis infectionIncidence of TBOutcome of treatmentPopulation-level interventionsFraction of casesTuberculosis infectionMinority strainsActual prevalenceInfected individualsInfectionStudy designMycobacterium tuberculosisPrevalenceSputumTuberculosisDistinct strainsDifferent strainsSources of biasPrevious studiesPatientsSpecific reasonsIncidenceIndividualsIncidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis disease in children: systematic review and global estimates
Jenkins HE, Tolman AW, Yuen CM, Parr JB, Keshavjee S, Pérez-Vélez CM, Pagano M, Becerra MC, Cohen T. Incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis disease in children: systematic review and global estimates. The Lancet 2014, 383: 1572-1579. PMID: 24671080, PMCID: PMC4094366, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60195-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisMultidrug-resistant tuberculosis diseaseTreatment-naive adultsMultidrug-resistant diseaseTuberculosis diseaseTuberculosis incidenceGlobal incidenceSystematic reviewCases of tuberculosisHarvard Medical SchoolGlobal tuberculosis incidenceGlobal annual incidenceTuberculosis riskAnnual incidencePatient groupUS National InstitutesWomen's HospitalInclusion criteriaInternal medicineNew diagnostic instrumentDisease riskTuberculosisIncidenceDiseaseHealth equityGeographical heterogeneity of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Georgia, January 2009 to June 2011.
Jenkins HE, Gegia M, Furin J, Kalandadze I, Nanava U, Chakhaia T, Cohen T. Geographical heterogeneity of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Georgia, January 2009 to June 2011. Eurosurveillance 2014, 19 PMID: 24679722, PMCID: PMC4090679, DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.11.20743.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMultidrug-resistant TBMDR-TB risk factorsTB casesRisk factorsMDR-TB incidenceMDR-TB riskMDR-TB transmissionMDR-TB casesMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisTreatment-naïve individualsMDR-TB burdenTuberculosis casesHigh riskTargeted interventionsSurveillance dataGeographical heterogeneityRegression modellingInterventionRiskRural areasCasesTuberculosisIncidencePercentageThe potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa
Pretorius C, Menzies NA, Chindelevitch L, Cohen T, Cori A, Eaton JW, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Hallett TB, Salomon JA, Stover J, White RG, Dodd PJ. The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa. AIDS 2014, 28: s25-s34. PMID: 24468944, DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000000085.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAntiretroviral therapyTB incidenceART expansionHIV treatment policyHIV-positive individualsART eligibility criteriaTuberculosis outcomesART eligibilitySurvival benefitTB burdenTB casesHIV transmissionART coverageHIV treatmentHIV epidemicMortality reductionPositive individualsEligibility criteriaTreatment policyART servicesTuberculosisIncidenceCurrent eligibilityIndependent mathematical modelsRecent findings
2009
Use of Cumulative Incidence of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 in Foreign Travelers to Estimate Lower Bounds on Cumulative Incidence in Mexico
Lipsitch M, Lajous M, O'Hagan JJ, Cohen T, Miller JC, Goldstein E, Danon L, Wallinga J, Riley S, Dowell SF, Reed C, McCarron M. Use of Cumulative Incidence of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 in Foreign Travelers to Estimate Lower Bounds on Cumulative Incidence in Mexico. PLOS ONE 2009, 4: e6895. PMID: 19742302, PMCID: PMC2731883, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0006895.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInfluenza A/H1N1Influenza A/Cumulative incidenceNovel influenza A/Severity of illnessSeverity of diseaseSevere diseaseTotal numberSevere symptomsNumber of casesDisease severityCurrent epidemicInfectious diseasesCanadian travellersIncidenceDiseaseAffected individualsSeverityH1N1Mexican residentsObserved groupEpidemicNovel pathogensDisease spreadResidents