Featured Publications
Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
Carlson C, Albery G, Merow C, Trisos C, Zipfel C, Eskew E, Olival K, Ross N, Bansal S. Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk. Nature 2022, 607: 555-562. PMID: 35483403, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsViral sharingRange shiftsRange shifts of speciesHuman population densityGeographic range shiftsUnique dispersal abilityLand-use scenariosShifts of speciesGlobal environmental changeGeographically isolated speciesBiodiversity surveysBiodiversity hotspotHolding warmingMammal speciesDispersal abilityLand-useLand usePotential hotspotsClimate-changePopulation densityCross-species transmissionPhylogeographic modelsEnvironmental changesEcological transitionVirus species
2025
Viral genomic features predict Orthopoxvirus reservoir hosts
Tseng K, Koehler H, Becker D, Gibb R, Carlson C, Pilar Fernandez M, Seifert S. Viral genomic features predict Orthopoxvirus reservoir hosts. Communications Biology 2025, 8: 309. PMID: 40000824, PMCID: PMC11862092, DOI: 10.1038/s42003-025-07746-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHost speciesViral genomic featuresHost ecological traitsPotential host speciesGenomic featuresHistorical rangeEcological traitsParts of Southeast AsiaWildlife surveillanceHuman populationCausative agent of smallpoxHost predictionAgent of smallpoxSpeciesSoutheast AsiaCausative agentGeographic regionsOrthopoxvirusesObservational research in epidemic settings: a roadmap to reform
Ricotta E, Carrillo F, Angelli-Nichols S, Barugahare J, Benton A, Carlson C, Chang-Rabley E, Dean N, Duda S, Federer L, Fill M, LeRoy E, Linton N, Lipsitch M, Mathur M, Phelan A, Rid A, Rosen J, Sauer L, Sullivan S, Zendt M, Evans N. Observational research in epidemic settings: a roadmap to reform. BMJ Global Health 2025, 10: e017981. PMID: 39929534, PMCID: PMC11815396, DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017981.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchTen quick tips to build a Model Life Cycle
Poisot T, Becker D, Brookson C, Graeden E, Ryan S, Turon G, Carlson C. Ten quick tips to build a Model Life Cycle. PLOS Computational Biology 2025, 21: e1012731. PMID: 39899593, PMCID: PMC11790144, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012731.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchA framework for managing infectious diseases in rural areas in low- and middle-income countries in the face of climate change—East Africa as a case study
Worsley-Tonks K, Angwenyi S, Carlson C, Cissé G, Deem S, Ferguson A, Fèvre E, Kimaro E, Kimiti D, Martins D, Merbold L, Mottet A, Murray S, Muturi M, Potter T, Prasad S, Wild H, Hassell J. A framework for managing infectious diseases in rural areas in low- and middle-income countries in the face of climate change—East Africa as a case study. PLOS Global Public Health 2025, 5: e0003892. PMID: 39883787, PMCID: PMC11781624, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003892.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMiddle-income countriesHealth systemDisease riskClimate changeRural areasExposure to climate-related hazardsInfectious disease riskClimate change adaptation strategiesBurden of infectious diseasesChange adaptation strategiesClimate change impactsContext of climate changeClimate-related hazardsDisease burdenHealthRural communitiesChange impactsHuman healthSystems climateAdaptation strategiesClimateInfectious diseasesBurdenDisease scenariosRiskThe WHO Disease Outbreak News during the Covid-19 pandemic
Weets C, Carlson C, Robertson H, Toole K, McGivern L, Graeden E, Katz R. The WHO Disease Outbreak News during the Covid-19 pandemic. PLOS Global Public Health 2025, 5: e0004025. PMID: 39869635, PMCID: PMC11771871, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004025.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPathogens and planetary change
Carlson C, Brookson C, Becker D, Cummings C, Gibb R, Halliday F, Heckley A, Huang Z, Lavelle T, Robertson H, Vicente-Santos A, Weets C, Poisot T. Pathogens and planetary change. Nature Reviews Biodiversity 2025, 1: 32-49. DOI: 10.1038/s44358-024-00005-w.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchBiodiversity lossAnthropogenic environmental changesLand-use changeBiodiversity conservationWildlife healthLand-useEcological costsDie-offGlobal changeBiodiversityEnvironmental changesEcological interventionsLive animal marketsInfectious disease riskPathogen surveillanceHuman-animal contactPathogensVector-borne diseasesSpeciesEvolutionary principlesWildlifeHigh-risk virusesEcosystemGlobal gapConservation
2024
Core components of infectious disease outbreak response
Moore M, Robertson H, Rosado D, Graeden E, Carlson C, Katz R. Core components of infectious disease outbreak response. SSM - Health Systems 2024, 3: 100030. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmhs.2024.100030.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchReconstructing 120 years of climate change impacts on Joshua tree flowering
Yoder J, Andrade A, DeFalco L, Esque T, Carlson C, Shryock D, Yeager R, Smith C. Reconstructing 120 years of climate change impacts on Joshua tree flowering. Ecology Letters 2024, 27: e14478. PMID: 39092581, DOI: 10.1111/ele.14478.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsClimate change impactsJoshua treesChange impactsMasting eventsWild populationsClimate change effectsDrought stressFlowering eventsTree flowersFlowersMojave DesertChange effectsAnnual precipitationIncreased variationWeather recordsNegative impactHistorical recordsTreesClimateSystematic datasetPerennialsBiodiversitySpeciesStrategic vaccine stockpiles for regional epidemics of emerging viruses: A geospatial modeling framework
Carlson C, Garnier R, Tiu A, Luby S, Bansal S. Strategic vaccine stockpiles for regional epidemics of emerging viruses: A geospatial modeling framework. Vaccine 2024, 42: 126051. PMID: 38902187, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.06.019.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchSave lives in the next pandemic: ensure vaccine equity now
Carlson C, Becker D, Happi C, O’Donoghue Z, de Oliveira T, Oyola S, Poisot T, Seifert S, Phelan A. Save lives in the next pandemic: ensure vaccine equity now. Nature 2024, 626: 952-953. PMID: 38396080, DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-00545-3.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsVaccine nationalismSave lives in the next pandemic: ensure vaccine equity now.
Carlson C, Becker D, Happi C, O'Donoghue Z, de Oliveira T, Oyola SO, Poisot T, Seifert S, Phelan A. Save lives in the next pandemic: ensure vaccine equity now. Nature 2024, 626: 952-953. PMID: 38396080, DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-00545-3.Commentaries, Editorials and LettersAfter millions of preventable deaths, climate change must be treated like a health emergency
Carlson C. After millions of preventable deaths, climate change must be treated like a health emergency. Nature Medicine 2024, 30: 622-622. PMID: 38291300, DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02765-y.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2023
The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk
Forero-Muñoz N, Muylaert R, Seifert S, Albery G, Becker D, Carlson C, Poisot T. The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk. Virus Evolution 2023, 10: vead079. PMID: 38361817, PMCID: PMC10868545, DOI: 10.1093/ve/vead079.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchSpatially explicit frameworkGeographic mosaic theory of coevolutionHost richnessGeographies of riskExplicit frameworkGeographic mosaic theoryTheory of coevolutionGlobal biogeographySub-Saharan AfricaDisease emergencePathogen evolutionEvolutionary riskSub-SaharanViral emergenceMiddle EastHotspotsSoutheast AsiaTrends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control
Lippi C, Mundis S, Sippy R, Flenniken J, Chaudhary A, Hecht G, Carlson C, Ryan S. Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control. Parasites & Vectors 2023, 16: 302. PMID: 37641089, PMCID: PMC10463544, DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05912-z.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSpecies distribution modelsSpecies distribution modelling methodsSpecies distribution modelling literatureDisease vectorsDistribution modelMosquito-borne disease riskInfectious disease vectorsGlobal changeMosquito speciesSpeciesMethodological focusNorth AmericaOutbreak riskDisease riskGeographyMosquitoesModeling effortsRegional modelSystematic reviewEcologyOpen data for COVID-19 policy analysis and mapping
Katz R, Toole K, Robertson H, Case A, Kerr J, Robinson-Marshall S, Schermerhorn J, Orsborn S, Van Maele M, Zimmerman R, Stevens T, Phelan A, Carlson C, Graeden E. Open data for COVID-19 policy analysis and mapping. Scientific Data 2023, 10: 491. PMID: 37500627, PMCID: PMC10374886, DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02398-3.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPolicy analysisMap of policiesWhole-of-governmentPolitical sciencePolicy typesGovernance strategiesImplement policiesPolicy measuresPolicy textsPolicySocial distancing measuresGovernmentPandemic responseLegal epidemiologyCOVID-19 pandemicLocal areaCOVID-19Open dataData sourcesCountriesJurisdictionsWHO ends public health emergency designation for mpox
Carlson C, Katz R. WHO ends public health emergency designation for mpox. The BMJ 2023, 381: p1190. PMID: 37277145, DOI: 10.1136/bmj.p1190.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchEcological drivers of sustained enzootic yellow fever virus transmission in Brazil, 2017–2021
Silva N, Albery G, Arruda M, Oliveira G, Costa T, de Mello É, Moreira G, Reis E, da Silva S, Silva M, de Almeida M, Becker D, Carlson C, Vasilakis N, Hanley K, Drumond B. Ecological drivers of sustained enzootic yellow fever virus transmission in Brazil, 2017–2021. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2023, 17: e0011407. PMID: 37276217, PMCID: PMC10270639, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011407.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMinas Gerais StateYF virus infectionNon-human primatesYF virusHigher virus titersFree-living non-human primatesInfection intensityExposure to vectorsSylvatic yellow feverEnzootic cycleViral replication levelsHigh virus dosesNon-human primate infectionCarcassYellow feverSeasonVirus titersVirus doseVirus transmissionSoutheastern BrazilVirus infectionViral strainsInfectionCoronavirus sampling and surveillance in bats from 1996–2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Cohen L, Fagre A, Chen B, Carlson C, Becker D. Coronavirus sampling and surveillance in bats from 1996–2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Nature Microbiology 2023, 8: 1176-1186. PMID: 37231088, PMCID: PMC10234814, DOI: 10.1038/s41564-023-01375-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchNetwork embedding unveils the hidden interactions in the mammalian virome
Poisot T, Ouellet M, Mollentze N, Farrell M, Becker D, Brierley L, Albery G, Gibb R, Seifert S, Carlson C. Network embedding unveils the hidden interactions in the mammalian virome. Patterns 2023, 4: 100738. PMID: 37409053, PMCID: PMC10318366, DOI: 10.1016/j.patter.2023.100738.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMammalian viromeViral genomic featuresHost-virus interactionsGraph embeddingGenomic featuresNetwork science problemUnder-characterizedFundamental biologyHuman infectionsViromeRecommender systemsDiscovery effortsAmazon basinDisease emergenceHidden interactionsImputation algorithmData biasNetworkLinear filterScience problems