Evaluation of the effectiveness of PEPFAR on PMTCT-related outcomes

Our team, led by HSPH Epidemiology doctoral student Dale Barnhart, for whom I serve as primary mentor, along with partners from the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Walter Reed Project HIV Program, Kenya (KEMRI/WRP), the Office of the U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator and Health Diplomacy, and U.S Military HIV Research Program (MHRP), used a quasi-experimental dose-response analysis to conduct an impact evaluation of PEPFAR funding for PMTCT on key PMTCT-related health outcomes, including infant mortality, in Kenya. Using publicly available data, we found evidence that PEPFAR funding for PMTCT may be causally associated with reduced infant mortality and increased HIV testing at ANC. The full impact of PMTCT funding may not be felt until several years after it is allocated. Our methods, paired with routine, publicly available data sets can be extended to other countries and health challenges to demonstrate the impact of large-scale donor programs like PEPFAR and to inform resource allocation by policymakers. We are currently finalizing our manuscript with our co-authors and have been invited to present our findings as part of an oral abstract presentation session at the AIDS 2018 conference in July, 2018 and at the Joint Statistical Meetings 2018 in Vancouver, Canada.