2018
Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemic parameter estimates and predictions using stochastic compartmental models
Zimmer C, Leuba SI, Cohen T, Yaesoubi R. Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemic parameter estimates and predictions using stochastic compartmental models. Statistical Methods In Medical Research 2018, 28: 3591-3608. PMID: 30428780, PMCID: PMC6517086, DOI: 10.1177/0962280218805780.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsFilter degeneracyParameter estimatesPosterior distributionStochastic transmission-dynamic modelParameter posterior distributionsEpidemic compartmental modelKey epidemic parametersStochastic compartmental modelStochastic systemsPrediction intervalsCompartmental modelMultiple shootingArt calibration methodsEpidemic parametersDegeneracyDynamic modelInfluenza modelMSS approachLong-term predictionTransmission dynamic modelSimulation experimentsCalibration methodUncertaintyEstimatesCompetitive performance
2014
Modeling of Novel Diagnostic Strategies for Active Tuberculosis – A Systematic Review: Current Practices and Recommendations
Zwerling A, White RG, Vassall A, Cohen T, Dowdy DW, Houben RM. Modeling of Novel Diagnostic Strategies for Active Tuberculosis – A Systematic Review: Current Practices and Recommendations. PLOS ONE 2014, 9: e110558. PMID: 25340701, PMCID: PMC4207742, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0110558.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNucleic acid amplification testsIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioActive tuberculosisHealth system modelDiagnostic strategiesNovel diagnostic strategiesAlternative nucleic acid amplification testsXpert MTB/RIFMTB/RIFCost-effectiveness ratioMulti-way sensitivity analysesFalse-negative diagnosesPre-diagnostic periodCost-effectiveness modelCost-effectiveness estimatesDiagnostic delayDiagnostic pathwayAdditional epidemiological dataTB diagnosticsEpidemiological dataReference listsAmplification testsEpidemiological impactEligible papersEpidemiological settings