2019
Implementation of Syringe Services Programs to Prevent Rapid Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Rural Counties in the United States: A Modeling Study
Goedel WC, King MRF, Lurie MN, Galea S, Townsend JP, Galvani AP, Friedman SR, Marshall BDL. Implementation of Syringe Services Programs to Prevent Rapid Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Rural Counties in the United States: A Modeling Study. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2019, 70: 1096-1102. PMID: 31143944, PMCID: PMC7319062, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz321.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSyringe services programHuman immunodeficiency virusHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmissionMore HIV infectionsInjection drug useHarm reduction servicesRural countiesScott CountyHIV infectionHIV transmissionImmunodeficiency virusDecrease incidenceHIV outbreakIncidence rateFirst infectionEarly infectionDrug useSingle infectionInfectionIncidenceVirus transmissionPWIDService programsDrugsTimely implementation
2018
Potential effectiveness of long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men: a modelling study
Marshall BDL, Goedel WC, King MRF, Singleton A, Durham DP, Chan PA, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. Potential effectiveness of long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV 2018, 5: e498-e505. PMID: 29908917, PMCID: PMC6138558, DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(18)30097-3.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNew HIV infectionsInjectable PrEPPre-exposure prophylaxisOral PrEPHIV infectionHIV transmissionInjectable pre-exposure prophylaxisOral pre-exposure prophylaxisAbsence of PrEPDaily oral PrEPTime-varying efficacyPhase 3 trialRetention of patientsNational InstituteDiscontinuation ratesSafety trialMacaque modelHIV preventionCumulative numberClinical carePharmacokinetic dataCoverage levelsPotential effectivenessPopulation-level impactInfection
2016
Vaccination strategies against respiratory syncytial virus
Yamin D, Jones FK, DeVincenzo JP, Gertler S, Kobiler O, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. Vaccination strategies against respiratory syncytial virus. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America 2016, 113: 13239-13244. PMID: 27799521, PMCID: PMC5135296, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1522597113.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsRespiratory syncytial virusSyncytial virusVaccination strategiesAge-specific vaccination strategiesRSV vaccine candidatesSubstantial indirect protectionInfectious viral loadOngoing clinical trialsWeekly incidence ratesTargeting of childrenDifferent age groupsInfected childrenRSV vaccinationVaccination uptakeInfant hospitalizationViral loadVaccine mechanismVaccination programClinical trialsIncidence rateCommon causeRSV incidenceVaccine candidatesAge groupsRSV symptomsCost-Effectiveness of Pertussis Vaccination During Pregnancy in the United States
Atkins KE, Fitzpatrick MC, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Cost-Effectiveness of Pertussis Vaccination During Pregnancy in the United States. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2016, 183: 1159-1170. PMID: 27188951, PMCID: PMC4908210, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwv347.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMaternal vaccinationAdult vaccinationWorld Health Organization criteriaPrimary vaccination seriesVaccination of mothersRecent epidemiologic evidenceAge-stratified transmission modelMaternal antibody transferPertussis vaccinationPostpartum vaccinationVaccination seriesAntibody transferEpidemiologic evidenceOrganization criteriaPertussis incidenceDisease burdenCurrent recommendationsSevere casesVaccinationInfantsPregnancyDirect protectionUS mothersMothersPertussisQuantifying Transmission of Clostridium difficile within and outside Healthcare Settings - Volume 22, Number 4—April 2016 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
Durham DP, Olsen MA, Dubberke ER, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Quantifying Transmission of Clostridium difficile within and outside Healthcare Settings - Volume 22, Number 4—April 2016 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2016, 22: 608-616. PMID: 26982504, PMCID: PMC4806959, DOI: 10.3201/eid2204.150455.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsClostridium difficile infectionAsymptomatic carriersLong-term care facility settingLong-term care facility residentsHospital-onset Clostridium difficile infectionCare facility residentsEffect of hospitalCommunity-based transmissionCommunity sourcesAsymptomatic patientsCDI incidenceDifficile infectionFacility residentsPatientsControl interventionsDifficile prevalenceC. difficileClostridium difficileHealthcare settingsNational databaseQuantifying transmissionTransmission routesHospitalDifficileControl measures
2015
The Impact of Enhanced Screening and Treatment on Hepatitis C in the United States
Durham DP, Skrip LA, Bruce RD, Vilarinho S, Elbasha EH, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. The Impact of Enhanced Screening and Treatment on Hepatitis C in the United States. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2015, 62: 298-304. PMID: 26628566, PMCID: PMC4706637, DOI: 10.1093/cid/civ894.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHepatitis C virusInterferon-free DAAsHCV incidenceTreatment ratesChronic hepatitis C virusCases of cirrhosisInjection drug useImpact of administrationAnnual treatment ratesEnhanced screeningHCV prevalenceHCV screeningDecompensated cirrhosisHCV infectionHCV transmissionHepatitis CLiver transplantActing antiviralsLevels of screeningPatients 4C virusHepatocellular carcinomaEpidemiological dataUniversal screeningDrug useOptimizing age of cytomegalovirus screening and vaccination to avert congenital disease in the US
Alfaro-Murillo JA, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. Optimizing age of cytomegalovirus screening and vaccination to avert congenital disease in the US. Vaccine 2015, 34: 225-229. PMID: 26631416, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.11.039.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolCytomegalovirus InfectionsCytomegalovirus VaccinesDisease Transmission, InfectiousFemaleHumansImmunization ScheduleInfantInfant, NewbornInfectious Disease Transmission, VerticalMaleMass ScreeningMiddle AgedUnited StatesYoung AdultConceptsVaccine waningVaccine efficacyOptimal ageCMV vaccine candidatesLongitudinal clinical evaluationChild-bearing yearsYears of ageTransmission dynamicsCMV prevalenceCMV vaccinationCytomegalovirus ScreeningSeronegative femalesCongenital infectionCytomegalovirus infectionVaccine protectionSuch vaccinationClinical evaluationClinical trialsHearing lossVaccine candidatesVaccinationDemographic dataCongenital diseaseCognitive deficitsIndirect protection
2013
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy. Epidemics 2013, 6: 37-45. PMID: 24593920, PMCID: PMC4316830, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsProbabilistic uncertainty analysisParameter uncertaintiesTypical sensitivity analysisUncertainty analysisDynamic modelDynamic infectious disease modelsSensitivity analysisMathematical modelingEpidemiological modelingInfectious disease modelIntervention policiesPublic health intervention policiesGlobal uncertaintyPolicy makersModel predictionsEpidemiological outcomesQuantitative predictionsProbability of successPoint estimatesPolicyUncertaintyLevel of vaccinationRelative importanceModelingHealth policyOptimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty
Mbah M, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty. Vaccine 2013, 31: 3079-3089. PMID: 23684837, PMCID: PMC3764605, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.04.052.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsOptimal vaccine allocationParameter uncertaintiesMathematical modelProbability distributionConsideration of uncertaintiesOutcome measuresVaccine allocationHuman population immunitySeasonal influenza vaccinationControl of influenzaUncertainty analysisFace of uncertaintyInfluenza vaccinationVaccine efficacySeasonal influenzaPopulation immunityUncertaintyEpidemiological dataHigh riskYounger ageYoung adultsEpidemiological parametersOptimal agePrevious recommendationsVaccine