Climate Change and Health Seminar Series: “Dust storms, socio-environmental factors, and COVID-19 in Puerto Rico”

Transcript

• 00:09<v ->Is recorded, and the recording</v>
• 00:11will be published later online
• 00:13on our Yale Center on Climate Change website.
• 00:16And during the seminar, if you have any questions,
• 00:19please feel free to type in your questions in the chat box.
• 00:24So without further ado, Pablo, welcome.
• 00:28<v ->Thank you Kai,</v>
• 00:29and thank you for the audience for being here.
• 00:31Thank you for the invitation for me, it's an honor
• 00:34to be sharing the information
• 00:36that we have from different research projects,
• 00:40and sharing with people outside of Puerto Rico.
• 00:44Please let me know when you can see
• 00:46my screen as not duplicated.
• 00:49Can you see it well?
• 00:51<v ->Yes.</v> <v ->Okay, perfect.</v>
• 00:52Thank you, Kai.
• 00:53Let me move this out of here, and also let me minimize this.
• 00:58So again, thank you for the invitation.
• 01:00I'm Pablo Mendez-Lazaro, I'm an Associate Professor
• 01:02at the University of Puerto Rico Medical Science Campus.
• 01:05I've been working at their
• 01:07environmental health department for 13 years.
• 01:10I'm a geographer by background,
• 01:13but then I switched right there,
• 01:16interdisciplinary research and graduate school
• 01:19on Marine science and (indistinct)
• 01:20and climate change.
• 01:22So therefore probably
• 01:25I can have a little bit of flexibility
• 01:28when changing from one topic to another.
• 01:31In this case,
• 01:32I'm gonna be talking about atmospheric conditions
• 01:34that are impacting or affecting public health
• 01:39and what kind of research we're doing in Puerto Rico,
• 01:43mainly with Saharan dust.
• 01:46Basically we do have two research projects
• 01:49that are funded by NASA, NASA ROSES,
• 01:52which is also their health and air quality program.
• 01:57The first one is a research project
• 01:59that we submitted back in 2017.
• 02:01We have been working with three different working groups
• 02:06and mainly we proposed to use the early warning system
• 02:11to develop early warning system
• 02:12using satellites information around bay stations,
• 02:15and also to quantify the impacts mainly
• 02:18on respiratory diseases on Puerto Rico.
• 02:20I'm gonna be speaking about a little bit,
• 02:22what is Saharan dust?
• 02:23Most of you probably are aware
• 02:24of the Godzilla dust event that occurred in 2020,
• 02:27but for those of you that are not aware,
• 02:29I'm gonna be explaining a little bit,
• 02:30what is Saharan dust,
• 02:32and this is an analysis in Puerto Rico.
• 02:34So to do that,
• 02:35we proposed three different working groups,
• 02:37and for ones which was the responsible of working
• 02:40on analyzing the intrinsic relationship into the dust
• 02:43and public health,
• 02:46using different methods and approach.
• 02:48Qualitative analysis but also quantitative analysis
• 02:51using secondary databases.
• 02:53The second one, the second working group
• 02:55was the one responsible of analyzing,
• 02:58we call it atmospheric forcing and air quality.
• 03:00And these ones were the one responsible
• 03:02of analyzing and doing the characterization
• 03:04of the dust using ground based stations,
• 03:06but also diesel particular matter.
• 03:09And you will ask, "Okay, so why diesel particular matter?"
• 03:12Because in our case we believe that,
• 03:13not in our case, I think that all of us agree,
• 03:16I'm preaching to the choir in this case but
• 03:18natural sources of air pollution are interacting
• 03:22with anthropogenic sources of air pollution.
• 03:24And one of the main sources of air pollution in Puerto Rico
• 03:27could be considered diesel particular matter,
• 03:30the anthropogenic sources, right?
• 03:31And one of the main natural sources of air pollution
• 03:34are the dust that are coming
• 03:35from the other side of the Atlantic.
• 03:37So we were wondering as well,
• 03:39what could happen if both of these aerosols
• 03:43and pollutants get together
• 03:47and how the conditions in the air quality
• 03:50can get deteriorated because of the simultaneous events.
• 03:54And the third working group
• 03:56is the one that we call decision, support tool,
• 03:58computation, and visualization.
• 03:59And this one is the working group
• 04:00that is responsible of developing
• 04:03the early warning system in collaboration
• 04:05with the National Weather Service,
• 04:07the office in San Juan and the Department of Health.
• 04:10So we call it like a, it's like a co-design,
• 04:13it's a human design center approach
• 04:17where we are working directly with any users,
• 04:20to see how can we help them to improve decision making
• 04:25for these kind of hazards.
• 04:26And how to protect the population
• 04:28when this threat is arriving to the Caribbean.
• 04:31Mainly as again, we started with Puerto Rico,
• 04:33but this kind of tool could be scalable
• 04:36to the rest of the Caribbean,
• 04:37because what we're using are satellite information
• 04:39and this information is available for the whole region.
• 04:45So to do that, I first built a team,
• 04:50a multidisciplinary team, this is who we are.
• 04:52A multidisciplinary team of epidemiologists,
• 04:57dermatologists, people from remote sensing,
• 05:00chemistry, atmospheric science and climatology.
• 05:03All of us working together
• 05:05to do this kind of research
• 05:07and developing early warning system
• 05:08for the Caribbean region.
• 05:10And what is this Saharan dust?
• 05:12So in the case of the Caribbean and the Sahara,
• 05:16this is our aerosols and mineral dust
• 05:19that are coming mainly from the Saharan desert.
• 05:21The Sahara desert is one of the biggest desert worldwide,
• 05:23and it can provide over 20 billions of tons
• 05:27that can reach into the Americas.
• 05:28When I'm saying the Americas,
• 05:30not only to the Caribbean region,
• 05:31because it depends on what season of the year.
• 05:34South America can be impacted
• 05:36by this dust coming from Africa,
• 05:37but also North America and the Caribbean region.
• 05:42In the Caribbean,
• 05:44these events are associated with increase
• 05:46on excessive risk of emergency room visits
• 05:48and hospitalizations related to respiratory diseases.
• 05:51This has been observed in Granada, Guadalupe, Martinique
• 05:56and in Puerto Rico as well.
• 05:59Well, we were working with this
• 06:01natural source of air pollution affecting public health.
• 06:06All of a sudden it appears, the coronavirus, SARS‑CoV‑2.
• 06:11So, which is the responsible of the COVID 19 pandemic
• 06:13that we're suffering.
• 06:15The first cases of COVID 19 in Puerto Rico
• 06:17were registered in March 2020.
• 06:20So very early after the pandemic,
• 06:21and I think that the first cases in Europe
• 06:24were registered in December, 2019,
• 06:27and then it took only a couple of months
• 06:29for the virus to get to the Caribbean region.
• 06:31And when that happened, we were able to wonder ourself,
• 06:36"Okay, so we have been working with Saharan dust,
• 06:38and this dust is associated with hospitalization
• 06:41and emergency room visit due to respiratory diseases.
• 06:44So what could happen to this patient
• 06:46or what could happen in the Caribbean,
• 06:48if we are facing two hazards?"
• 06:51Both are different hazards,
• 06:53but both of them are affecting the same system,
• 06:56the same respiratory disease system.
• 06:58One is air pollution, natural sources of air pollution,
• 07:01and the other one is a virus.
• 07:03But again, both of them are interacting,
• 07:05affecting the same system.
• 07:08So why we're doing this?
• 07:10And why we are also including
• 07:12some other environmental factors, okay?
• 07:15So air pollution is being
• 07:17as considered like the silent killer.
• 07:19And it's not only
• 07:21the anthropogenic sources of air pollution,
• 07:23but there's many other natural resources of air pollution
• 07:26that can exacerbate our health, right?
• 07:28And it's been acknowledge by the World Health Organization,
• 07:32but also by the CDC
• 07:33and some others important agencies worldwide.
• 07:38And some other factors that we are considering for example,
• 07:42I'm just gonna be talking about very slightly
• 07:45about the other one that is another climate hazard
• 07:48that could be considered a silent killer is extreme heat.
• 07:52And accordingly to the CDC for example,
• 07:54extreme heat, at least in the United States,
• 07:56it can be considered the number one weather related death.
• 08:00So is the one number one responsible for death
• 08:03when we're talking about climate and extreme weather events.
• 08:06So in terms of public health and mortality,
• 08:09when we're talking about air pollution and extreme heat,
• 08:12both of them are ranking first or second.
• 08:16It depends how do you look at.
• 08:19Both of them are considered number one
• 08:22in terms of impacting and affecting public health.
• 08:25In the left side,
• 08:26what I'm showing is the weather fatalities
• 08:28that occur in the United States
• 08:29in the 48 continental states.
• 08:32And as you can see for example,
• 08:34when we're talking about weather fatalities,
• 08:37they are not associated with hurricanes
• 08:39they are not associated with floods.
• 08:40Most of them again are associated
• 08:43with heat and extreme heat, right?
• 08:46So these are two very important component
• 08:48because you will see that,
• 08:51right after our result
• 08:53what we're seeing as preliminary results
• 08:55is that actually both of them are interacting
• 08:58with the pandemic and are exacerbating
• 09:01the conditions in the patients
• 09:03that are struggling with the virus.
• 09:07So as I mentioned, this is something
• 09:08that I think that all of us,
• 09:09if you're coming from the Yale School of Public Health
• 09:12and front of environmental health, most of you are aware.
• 09:15So there are multiple sources of air pollution
• 09:17and we have two first categories.
• 09:19The first one is the anthropogenic sources of air pollution,
• 09:23which are from transportation for example, airplanes,
• 09:28ships, trucks, vehicles, whatever,
• 09:31some others are from the industries.
• 09:33But also we have natural sources of air pollution,
• 09:36and this is where we are doing emphasis in our research.
• 09:39And the natural sources of air pollution
• 09:41and those one that
• 09:44the source of the pollution,
• 09:46it can be thousand of kilometers away
• 09:49from the places that are getting affected.
• 09:52And in our case for example,
• 09:53we're talking about natural sources of air pollution
• 09:55the are five to 7,000 kilometers
• 09:59away from the Caribbean region.
• 10:00But actually they have the capacity
• 10:03to be transported by the trade winds
• 10:05in some specifics seasons.
• 10:07And to impact the region
• 10:10mainly in the Caribbean.
• 10:13The Saharan dust are mineral dust are not the only one,
• 10:16and not the only natural sources for pollution.
• 10:18We can see also some volcanic ashes,
• 10:21we can see sulfur also from volcanoes.
• 10:25And we have also mold and spores
• 10:28that can be provided by the vegetation
• 10:30in the tropical landscape for example,
• 10:33but there are multiple other sources of air pollution again,
• 10:35that are affecting or are interacting with pollution.
• 10:40What is the Saharan dust?
• 10:41So these are mineral dust particles that can fly literally
• 10:45and can be transported by the trade winds
• 10:48they're coming from, mainly from the Saharan desert.
• 10:51But also the Sahel desert is another source
• 10:54of this kind of dust,
• 10:55but we are using the Saharan dust.
• 10:57Right, because this is the main source
• 11:00of the particles that are getting to the Caribbean.
• 11:02And we're measuring this as aerosols
• 11:04and aerosol is basically,
• 11:06different small particles that could be liquid
• 11:09or solid that are suspended in the atmospheres.
• 11:13As I mentioned, it could be that of sea salts
• 11:15as well, volcanic ashes, smoke from fires, biomasses
• 11:19and factory pollution, right?
• 11:21Again, in our case,
• 11:22we are particularly interested in working
• 11:25with this particle that are coming
• 11:27from the other side of the Atlantic.
• 11:29This particle are very important because
• 11:31they provide nutrients to terrestrial ecosystem,
• 11:36but also to ocean ecosystem, so is very important.
• 11:39But when we're talking about public health,
• 11:42that's the negative component.
• 11:44Because in some cases, this particle,
• 11:48they're coarse, right?
• 11:49So in some cases they're big enough,
• 11:51but to fly from the other,
• 11:53to be suspended for a long period of time,
• 11:56and to cross all over the Atlantic
• 11:58suspended in the atmosphere,
• 12:00some of this particle are very small in size.
• 12:03And that's why it could be dangerous for public health,
• 12:07because some of them have the capacity
• 12:08to get inside of your system very deep.
• 12:12And in some cases, because we're talking about particles
• 12:14that are very small, right?
• 12:16This is another way on how to see it.
• 12:18We have the source, which is in the African continent,
• 12:21in the Northern side, from Sahara and the Sahel.
• 12:24And we need some specific condition for this sediment
• 12:27to get lift by the air,
• 12:29and to be transported by the trade winds,
• 12:31to the other side of the Atlantic.
• 12:33So we need to consider the wind speed, wind direction,
• 12:37and also the conditions that are causing the lift
• 12:42to occur in the Saharan desert, right?
• 12:45So when this, all this planets are aligned,
• 12:48that means that a dust cloud could be transported
• 12:51to the other side of the Atlantic, okay.
• 12:54The main season in the Caribbean
• 12:56of the African dust arriving to our region
• 12:59are mainly during the Summer, right?
• 13:00So it's also interacting with the hottest season
• 13:03in the Caribbean,
• 13:05and also it's interacting with the tropical storms.
• 13:10So you will see that
• 13:12the season start to increase the Saharan dust.
• 13:16These aerosols arriving to the Caribbean
• 13:18are increasing after May
• 13:21receiving a peak of the season
• 13:22during the months of June,
• 13:24and then starting to decrease again during July,
• 13:26August and September.
• 13:27And September is the peak season
• 13:29for the Caribbean region,
• 13:30for the hurricane Caribbean region, in our case.
• 13:34So the Saharan dust is also,
• 13:37and these aerosols are interacting also with the atmosphere,
• 13:40which is important because this is dry air.
• 13:42And in some cases,
• 13:43this Sahara dust also is associated
• 13:45with inhibition of the formation of tropical storms
• 13:50and powerful hurricanes.
• 13:51We still need to analyze better that kind of information,
• 13:56but the scientists are still wondering
• 13:59how these interactions could be positive, in some cases
• 14:03for hurricane formation in the Caribbean.
• 14:06These aerosol are also associated
• 14:08with an increase in PM2.5, as I mentioned.
• 14:10Some of them are big, bigger than PM10, for example,
• 14:15but some others could be as small as 2.5 or even smaller.
• 14:19And that's why they have the capacity to float
• 14:21and to be suspended in the atmosphere
• 14:23for thousand of kilometers, right?
• 14:26So when these dust clouds arrive to our region,
• 14:29it's also increasing the concentration of PM2.5
• 14:35during this season
• 14:36and it's associated with the peak events, right?
• 14:39And as you can see, I'm just citing here
• 14:42that the dust, it positively associated
• 14:45with cardiovascular and respiratory conditions
• 14:47in the Caribbean and in this case
• 14:49is related to Puerto Rico,
• 14:51but also is associated with asthma, hospitalization
• 14:54and emergency room visits in children's,
• 14:57which we are talking about kids
• 14:59in Trinidad and Tobago, Guadalupe and Granada.
• 15:03So one of the channels that we're using
• 15:08to identify these aerosols
• 15:09is the aerosol optical depth.
• 15:11The aerosol optical depth is by scattering,
• 15:13the light scattering that we're receiving
• 15:15using satellite remote sensing
• 15:18and information from different sensors
• 15:20that I'm gonna be speaking about.
• 15:22And so this is the, they have no maximum units.
• 15:25They can go from zero up to two until now,
• 15:28after we saw with Godzilla.
• 15:31So zero means that there are no visible particles
• 15:34in the atmosphere that could be identified
• 15:38using these sensors.
• 15:41And the higher the numbers,
• 15:43it means that a lot of particles are in the atmosphere
• 15:47are being identified using the satellites
• 15:50that are floating in the atmosphere, okay?
• 15:53In terms of the data that we're using,
• 15:55as I mentioned, we're using different sources of data.
• 15:58So we're using VIIRS,
• 15:59which is visible infrared imaging radiometer suite,
• 16:03and coming out from that sensor we're using AOD.
• 16:07AOD again is aerosol optical depth.
• 16:09Then we have a Scatter Angstrom Exponent.
• 16:12You see this is an important variable,
• 16:15because it is associated,
• 16:18the lower the value with this, the Angstrom Exponent,
• 16:22it means that the particles
• 16:24are more associated to be dust, okay?
• 16:27So it's a proxy
• 16:29because when you're using satellite information,
• 16:31you are not seeing necessary the distinction between dust
• 16:35and some other particle
• 16:36that can be floating in the atmosphere,
• 16:38as I mentioned with ashes.
• 16:41But if you look at other kind of signal, for example,
• 16:44and in this case the Angstrom exponent,
• 16:46you can have a better idea of what kind of aerosol
• 16:50is floating in that dust, okay, in that cloud.
• 16:54So we are using Angstrom exponent
• 16:57but also mass concentration.
• 17:00To understand and to see the better,
• 17:02how this atmospheric variables
• 17:05are interacting with other environmental factors
• 17:08nearby the Caribbean region,
• 17:10we're also using sea surface temperature
• 17:14to see how it can influence,
• 17:16if it have cooling effects over the ocean,
• 17:19or if it has a warming effect over the ocean.
• 17:22And it's three case,
• 17:24it depends on how it's occurring this dust cloud,
• 17:29the day, the concentration and the amount of dust
• 17:33that can be present.
• 17:34We're also using MODIS and UTCI, which is from Sentinel.
• 17:40This is a Universal Thermal Climate Index.
• 17:43To see again, the interaction
• 17:45with the occurrence of the Saharan dust
• 17:48in the Caribbean and the temperatures in our region.
• 17:52To do that,
• 17:53we started analyzing daily values since 2012, until 2020.
• 18:00You have all of the current databases.
• 18:04There are different satellites
• 18:06coming from NASA for example,
• 18:08some of the are geostationary data,
• 18:11and some others are orbital data.
• 18:13And where we say geostationary data for example,
• 18:16to use geostationary data,
• 18:18it means that it is a satellite or a signal
• 18:21that is providing you information very frequently,
• 18:25from the same part of the earth constantly, right?
• 18:30So like, as it can be with GOES-R, for example,
• 18:32we're also using GOES-R to develop the early warning system.
• 18:36But if you want to understand the trajectory
• 18:40of this system for example,
• 18:42so then we're using, for example, VIIRS,
• 18:44because VIIRS is a polar orbit and is a satellite
• 18:47that is turning around the earth
• 18:49and is providing you information
• 18:52about what is happening with this aerosols
• 18:54and the atmospheric conditions in other places of the world.
• 18:58So you can understand what is happening
• 19:00with the source of the dust
• 19:02that are probably coming to your region
• 19:04in the next couple of days.
• 19:06So we're using two different formats of information.
• 19:10One is geostationary data
• 19:12that are coming from GOES-R mainly,
• 19:13and the other ones that are coming from VIIRS
• 19:15that are orbital information.
• 19:18The orbital information has a limitation,
• 19:20because for example, in our case, Puerto is very small.
• 19:23So it means that the VIIRS is only providing data,
• 19:26very accurate data for the region,
• 19:29every couple of days, for example.
• 19:32It's not necessarily, it like between five to seven days,
• 19:36the interval or the frequency when you can have
• 19:40information for aerosols in the Caribbean.
• 19:43But if you're using GOES-R for example,
• 19:45GOES-R is providing you aerosol information constantly.
• 19:49Well, most of the time there are still,
• 19:51there are other limitations,
• 19:52but I'm not gonna be speaking about that.
• 19:54There are other limitation
• 19:55about this geostationary satellite,
• 19:58but it could be providing you
• 20:00very frequent information
• 20:02about the aerosol optical depth in the region.
• 20:05So with all this aerosol we have in place
• 20:08the first experimental decision support tool,
• 20:10this is how we're calling it
• 20:12in collaboration with the Puerto Rico Department of Health
• 20:15and different 19 organizations, health clinics,
• 20:18and the National Weather Service.
• 20:20It's been posted in the webpage of CARICOOS,
• 20:25CARICOOS is the Caribbean Coastal Ocean
• 20:28Observing System.
• 20:29And it's already a platform that is providing
• 20:32meteorological and climate information
• 20:34for Puerto Rico and the US Green Islands.
• 20:36So in this case,
• 20:37we're making leverage of that existing platform
• 20:39to provide to the audience
• 20:42the information that we're obtaining in this area.
• 20:45So we are retrieving data from
• 20:47four different regions in Puerto Rico.
• 20:49And this is the four tachometers that we have.
• 20:53We identified the level of risk
• 20:56based on the information that we obtain
• 20:58with the health clinics,
• 20:59with patients and with the secondary data that we analyzed.
• 21:03And based on that impact,
• 21:05we have the first warning system
• 21:08for level mild, extreme to very extreme conditions
• 21:13in term of air quality, and it depends on the color.
• 21:16And we have four different sites distributed
• 21:21in the most populated region of the island.
• 21:24To provide that information in real time
• 21:26and also we are developing the early warning system,
• 21:32meaning that it will be a forecast
• 21:34to give this information to the general public in advance
• 21:38for them to take precautious actions
• 21:41before this dust is arriving to the Caribbean.
• 21:46So this is our just example of how it looks like.
• 21:49The images are very raw, obviously,
• 21:51but as soon as you get into the webpage,
• 21:53you can use it in your app,
• 21:55and you can see the tachometers
• 21:57providing you in real time information
• 21:59about air quality associated with aerosols.
• 22:03This information had been used also
• 22:05to develop educational materials, and to do outreach
• 22:09with the National Weather Service in Puerto Rico,
• 22:12both in Spanish and English,
• 22:15and being used by the Department of Health.
• 22:18So now as we have like a prototype.
• 22:20As you can see here in October 3rd, 2021,
• 22:24we suffer one of the most recent dust cloud
• 22:27after the Godzilla dust event that occurred in 2020.
• 22:30And most of the agencies that were working with us
• 22:32and collaborating, they were using this information
• 22:36to make the population aware of their own healthy conditions
• 22:41that we were facing for sensitive group
• 22:44to take precautious measures.
• 22:47This is another example done on October seven,
• 22:50the agency were using our information
• 22:53to provide the best information as possible
• 22:55to the general audience and to sensitive groups.
• 23:01We did a couple of webinars
• 23:03impacting over 400,000 people in Puerto Rico.
• 23:06We did it with NASA, with the National Weather Service.
• 23:09We did it with the (indistinct),
• 23:11which is a, it's a science museum in Puerto Rico
• 23:16that are being responsible of
• 23:18providing a lot of education and webinars.
• 23:21So they did most of the outreach,
• 23:26and we did all of the science to the audience.
• 23:31So we have already now also
• 23:34an Air Quality Awareness Week in Puerto Rico,
• 23:38and it's happening all days, all year, sorry,
• 23:42and at the beginning of May.
• 23:44So during the month of May,
• 23:46we are giving webinars for the general audience
• 23:50in Spanish and English.
• 23:51Two different sessions for,
• 23:54to comply with Puerto Rico because,
• 23:55in Puerto Rico 98% of the population
• 23:58are Hispanic and Latino.
• 23:59And it's the main, is the principle language
• 24:03spoken here in Puerto Rico.
• 24:05Okay, so with that being said,
• 24:10something happened in between
• 24:12while we were developing the early warning system
• 24:15and when the first cases of COVID 19
• 24:17arrived to the Caribbean.
• 24:19So as I mentioned at the beginning,
• 24:22so the Saharan dust is associated
• 24:25with than accessories of emergency room visits,
• 24:27hospitalization,
• 24:28and in some cases, partially attributable to death.
• 24:32They partially attributable that doesn't mean
• 24:34that you are dying because of the Saharan dust,
• 24:37but with some other comorbidities
• 24:39and some other interactions,
• 24:41you might be suffering for exacerbations
• 24:44and you are most likely to die.
• 24:47So what we did is that,
• 24:49all of the sudden, the first cases of COVID 19
• 24:52getting into Puerto Rico in March 13th, 2020,
• 24:55and then NASA opened another call for proposal
• 25:00requesting to work with the COVID 19,
• 25:03it was a rapid assessment.
• 25:05So we wasn't expected an extreme event of dust
• 25:08as it happened during the Summer of 2020.
• 25:11But since we were already working
• 25:14with the Saharan dust previously for five years or more.
• 25:19We had this project, but we have been working
• 25:21with the Saharan dust for more years.
• 25:23So we were wondering what could happen if
• 25:27we have an extreme dust cloud event
• 25:31getting to the Caribbean, deteriorating the air quality,
• 25:34and also having a lot of cases with COVID 19, right?
• 25:38So if already the Saharan dust
• 25:40is associated with an increase
• 25:42in the demand of healthcare facilities,
• 25:45what could happen is we were seeing the news
• 25:48in other places of the world
• 25:49where the hospitals were collapsing
• 25:51because they didn't have the capacity
• 25:52to provide the services to the patients, right?
• 25:55So we were wondering when we were submitting this proposal,
• 25:57what could happen if both of them
• 25:59are simultaneously occurring in the same time, right?
• 26:04So we submit the proposal,
• 26:06we obtained the grant and we quickly get
• 26:11working with the research.
• 26:13As I mentioned, when we submit the proposal,
• 26:16it was in April, 2020, just a couple of weeks
• 26:21after the first cases of COVID 19
• 26:23reported in Puerto Rico.
• 26:24By that time, we were not expecting
• 26:26to have Godzilla dust event.
• 26:29And for those of you that are not aware
• 26:31of what was Godzilla, Godzilla was a dust cloud
• 26:34that arrived to the Caribbean region.
• 26:35And we stayed under unhealthy conditions
• 26:40due to air quality
• 26:41for more than three days in the Caribbean region,
• 26:44so it was a little bit overwhelming. (laughs)
• 26:47So what we did is that
• 26:48we design a couple of instrument
• 26:52to work with physicians, with patients,
• 26:55and to better understandable vulnerabilities.
• 26:57We design a couple of qualitative instrument
• 26:59because we believe that working in public health,
• 27:01that the qualitative instrument
• 27:03could be richer in some cases,
• 27:05because they can provide you
• 27:07information about various vulnerability
• 27:09risk perception
• 27:11about how the people are working with this risk.
• 27:14This is risk perception as well, right?
• 27:15So we recruited more than...
• 27:18Sorry for those noises. (laughs)
• 27:20We recruited more than 55 physicians
• 27:23and over 100 patients to work with them.
• 27:27We also made a couple of memorandums of understanding
• 27:32and agreement with different clinics
• 27:34in order to receive medical records information,
• 27:37because not only understanding the number of cases
• 27:41that are getting into the hospital,
• 27:44but how these patients conditions
• 27:48could be exacerbated with the Saharan dust.
• 27:51And also we started to analyze
• 27:54the whole cost excess mortality,
• 27:57island wide, not only in some places,
• 27:59in interacting with the environmental factors.
• 28:02So this is like only a graphic showing
• 28:04when the first cases of COVID 19 arrive to Puerto Rico
• 28:08and to the Caribbean,
• 28:10and then how we suffered Godzilla dust event.
• 28:15The bigger the number in the right axis,
• 28:18as you can see are aerosol optical depth.
• 28:21It means that the most extreme values we observe
• 28:25for aerosols and these particles
• 28:28arriving to the Caribbean.
• 28:29It wast dust cloud huge enough
• 28:32that is almost covered all the Caribbean sea together,
• 28:37all of the lessers and fields,
• 28:38and also from Puerto Rico to Trinidad and Tobago.
• 28:42It was big enough,
• 28:43but also with a lot of concentration,
• 28:44higher values were observed during that time.
• 28:47In the central part of the graphic,
• 28:48what we're seeing here is that the black line
• 28:50are representing the years of 2020, the different month.
• 28:55And as you can see,
• 28:56it's marked a record for aerosol optical depth
• 28:59in our region.
• 29:01And again, Puerto Rico stayed for over three days
• 29:04with unhealthy sorry,
• 29:06with unhealthy conditions due to this Saharan dust PM2.5.
• 29:12And the bars,
• 29:13what we're seeing here are the number of cases
• 29:16that had been registered of COVID 19 and hospitalizations
• 29:23in some places of Puerto Rico, right?
• 29:25This is only a graphic,
• 29:27I'm not making any kind of assumption with the graphic.
• 29:30This is just to show you the patterns
• 29:32that were observed during that Summer.
• 29:34The lines are aerosol optical depth,
• 29:37the bars are hospital admissions.
• 29:40So in all places of Puerto Rico,
• 29:43as I mentioned in all our four tachometers,
• 29:45you can see the Godzilla dust event marking a record
• 29:49as never occurred in the last decades,
• 29:52or even prior to the decade.
• 29:54Satellite information, the one that we're using
• 29:56is only going back until 2012,
• 30:01but you using ground based station you can go as back as,
• 30:04as probably 20 to 30 years before from now.
• 30:08And it was also a record
• 30:10for this dust event in the Caribbean.
• 30:13These are only pictures for you
• 30:15that can see how the visibility decreases so much
• 30:19in some places of Puerto Rico.
• 30:20In the right side,
• 30:21we're are seeing the Southwest of Puerto Rico,
• 30:23this is Guánica bay.
• 30:24And on top of it, you can see the day before
• 30:28the arrival of the Godzilla dust event
• 30:30and then very early at 9:00 AM in the morning.
• 30:33So the visibility decrease up to three miles only
• 30:36in most of the island,
• 30:38when the visibility in Puerto Rico is mostly 20 to 21 miles.
• 30:42So you can imagine that the deterioration in air quality
• 30:45that had happened.
• 30:47So working with the physicians, most of them agree that
• 30:53there were the severity of the symptom
• 30:56of the patient of COVID 19
• 30:57could be most likely to be exacerbated
• 30:59because of the dust clouds.
• 31:01And when we were working with the patient,
• 31:03some of them were telling that they were more sensitive
• 31:06to these aerosols after being confirmed with COVID 19.
• 31:12So they were more sensitive after surviving the COVID-19
• 31:16than they used to be before having COVID 19.
• 31:20So in somehow it means that nowadays they're most sensitive.
• 31:24We also did another survey where we were lucky
• 31:27because we have 1500 participants that work with us
• 31:31provide a lot of information.
• 31:33Most of them were female, so we need to highlight that.
• 31:36So that's important to say, between 25 to 44 years old,
• 31:41but something very important is that,
• 31:42almost 65% of the population
• 31:44had at least one chronic conditions,
• 31:47and those individuals with at least one comorbidity
• 31:50are 14.37 more likely to need medical services
• 31:55when they are facing the Saharan dust in Puerto Rico.
• 32:01And this is what happened,
• 32:01for example, with the Godzilla dust event.
• 32:05Most of the people that participate,
• 32:0790% of them are indicating the Saharan dust is affecting
• 32:10both their family members, but also their own health status.
• 32:14So not only the participants,
• 32:16but also they consider that in their family members
• 32:18are also getting affected by this atmospheric conditions.
• 32:24Asthma is important
• 32:26because most of the respondent
• 32:27and the participants that participated saying that
• 32:2965% had only one chronic condition,
• 32:31but asthma was the most reported condition.
• 32:35Another important issue is that apparently
• 32:38these symptoms are mild to level to not that heavy
• 32:46or not that complicated because only 12%,
• 32:49only 12% of the 1500 that participated
• 32:53that were saying that
• 32:54the Saharan dust is affecting the health,
• 32:57of their family members and the own health,
• 33:00only 12% are seeking medical attention.
• 33:03So meaning that the impact on health of the Saharan dust
• 33:07is not necessarily need to be something that
• 33:10at least with this cases, right,
• 33:13that is gonna be saturating all of the hospital and clinics,
• 33:17but only 12% are gonna be visiting or are getting,
• 33:22their symptoms are so complicated,
• 33:23they need medical attention.
• 33:27To continue working with public health data,
• 33:29we are requesting the medical records
• 33:32in six different health clinics.
• 33:34So nowaday, we have 1200 medical records,
• 33:38the clinics provide this information in paper,
• 33:42so we are now doing the data entry.
• 33:44That's why we are requesting a no cost extension,
• 33:46to analyze this part of the project.
• 33:50And we requested all of the information
• 33:53from the first month once the COVID 19 get to Puerto Rico
• 33:58after one year after completely, right?
• 34:01Because when it was,
• 34:02when we were planning to end the analysis.
• 34:06We were not that lucky,
• 34:07it took us a lot of time
• 34:08because we were dealing with legal offices (laughs)
• 34:10and a lot of paperwork and memorandums of understanding.
• 34:13But finally, we have this information available.
• 34:15This is the only missing information that we still need
• 34:19to analyze, to better understand,
• 34:21how the patients that were admitted
• 34:23or visiting the hospitals,
• 34:26how their conditions were exacerbated by these symptoms.
• 34:30In terms of the databases,
• 34:31and I'm gonna be very quickly on this.
• 34:34Most of them are the one
• 34:35that are already mentioned at the beginning,
• 34:37what we were using, mortality, hospital admission,
• 34:40emergency room visits.
• 34:43Environmental factor source are
• 34:44heat index, universal thermal climate index
• 34:47and aerosols, okay?
• 34:50In terms of the hospital admission, this is another graphic.
• 34:52And again, I'm not making another,
• 34:55not assumption about this graphic,
• 34:56but what I would like to show is that
• 34:59as we can see at the very first beginning,
• 35:01we did suffer a couple of cases of COVID 19
• 35:04and hospitalization in the six clinics
• 35:06that are participating with us.
• 35:09And then because of the lockdown
• 35:11and the curfew,
• 35:13and all of the restrictions
• 35:15that the government did during that period,
• 35:17we were able to control all of the local transmissions
• 35:20and the infections,
• 35:21and we can see how it went very low.
• 35:24But then all of a sudden,
• 35:27together with the Godzilla dust event,
• 35:30we can see how COVID 19 cases started to increase.
• 35:34I'm not saying again,
• 35:35that this is because of the Godzilla dust event,
• 35:38but it happening very,
• 35:42it's timely associated if you want, (laughs)
• 35:44because both of them occur
• 35:45during the same time and same period, okay.
• 35:48So once the cases started to increase during the Summer,
• 35:52then during the Fall, during the hurricane season,
• 35:55it started to decrease,
• 35:57there was a lot of, couple of curfews
• 35:58and lockdown and government restrictions.
• 36:00And then during the Winter, which it was expected,
• 36:03the COVID 19 cases started to increase again
• 36:06and then restrictions, and we can see it here.
• 36:09And again, I'm not saying that the environmental factors
• 36:11are the only one that are associated
• 36:12with COVID 19 transmission and infections,
• 36:15we need to consider so many other
• 36:17social behaviorals and patterns
• 36:20that has been confirmed by the scientists
• 36:24that are also related
• 36:27with the spread of the COVID 19.
• 36:30I show already this graphic,
• 36:31but it's just to highlight again,
• 36:33that right after the cases,
• 36:36when the cases started to rise during the Summer,
• 36:39we were also facing the Godzilla dust event
• 36:41during the same period.
• 36:43Again, I'm not saying that
• 36:46it was because of the Saharan dust
• 36:49that the COVID 19 cases get so high, okay?
• 36:54In case of what we have on the hospital admissions,
• 36:56this is our very demographic profiles.
• 36:59And in terms of the mortality
• 37:01is what I think what is very important.
• 37:03So we do have a couple of,
• 37:06nine or more different environmental variables.
• 37:09We only are analyzing in this case, nine of them,
• 37:13the one that we think
• 37:14that could be impacting health in Puerto Rico,
• 37:18and we build 18 different environmental indices,
• 37:21most of them retrieve from the satellites data.
• 37:27Since some of them, and both of them are correlated
• 37:32because these are atmospheric conditions
• 37:34that have a lot of co-linearity,
• 37:35so we only kept a couple of them
• 37:40to have a better understanding on how these variables
• 37:44are associated with mortality in Puerto Rico.
• 37:48So we started analyzing,
• 37:50we requested daily mortality
• 37:53from the Department of Health in Puerto Rico.
• 37:57And as you can see here, this is mortality, total mortality,
• 38:03all causes.
• 38:04Non accidental mortality, let me clarify that.
• 38:07This is non accidental mortality,
• 38:10and we create this table for you to see it, for example.
• 38:14So since 2015 to 2020,
• 38:19in Puerto mortalities,
• 38:22used to be higher during the Autumn and during the Winter
• 38:26still don't know why,
• 38:28but this is the patterns that we observe.
• 38:31As you can see, for the last five years per season,
• 38:37the higher mortality occur
• 38:39in the aftermath of hurricane Maria,
• 38:42not necessarily during hurricane Maria.
• 38:44Again, not too many people died during landfall,
• 38:47but many people died
• 38:48in the aftermath of hurricane Maria,
• 38:50weeks and two weeks ago.
• 38:53So after that,
• 38:55you can see another record that occurred in 2020,
• 38:59but surprisingly, it didn't occur in Fall or Winter,
• 39:03it occurred in Summer.
• 39:05So it means that it's associated also
• 39:07with the COVID 19 cases,
• 39:09again, not attributable 100%
• 39:14to the cases of COVID, but because of the pandemic,
• 39:17a lot of people were afraid to search for medical attention
• 39:21and a lot of other things that need to be considered
• 39:24making another record for mortality
• 39:27in Puerto Rico during the Summer.
• 39:29Which is weird because over the last five years,
• 39:32this is the only Summer
• 39:35that it marked a record on mortality,
• 39:38this is the first time that we're seeing this.
• 39:41And we're wondering also how much this dust cloud event
• 39:45should be exacerbating the conditions, okay?
• 39:50So when we started analyzing mortality,
• 39:53we first starting by saying,
• 39:55"Okay, so we have a seasonality
• 39:57for the Saharan dust arrival to the Caribbean."
• 39:59So we have Saharan days, for example,
• 40:01and we have non Saharan days.
• 40:03And those non Saharan days are those that are
• 40:06where we are not seeing aerosol optical depth.
• 40:10For example, the threshold that we use is 0.18,
• 40:14I'm not gonna go into the details. (laughs)
• 40:18And the other ones are the days
• 40:20where we can observe 0.18 or values above that
• 40:25for the aerosol optical depth.
• 40:27And we started to see that, for example, even though
• 40:33these aerosols are more associated to the Summer,
• 40:37but we can see a distinction also on mortality
• 40:40due to respiratory conditions without flu cases,
• 40:43because flu in Puerto Rico
• 40:45has a very marked seasonality as well,
• 40:48and it's more associated with Winter.
• 40:50So we took flu cases apart,
• 40:53and we take it out of the database and we only analyzed
• 40:56all of the other respiratory condition,
• 40:58and we started seeing some specific results.
• 41:04Analyzing it with COVID 19,
• 41:06we observed that actually during the Summer,
• 41:11the patients that had COVID 19 were more likely to die,
• 41:16when UTCI, UTCI is universal thermal climate index.
• 41:20This is another indicator to provide information
• 41:23about how is the sensitivity to heat, okay?
• 41:27So your thermal comfort
• 41:29in regard of temperatures, okay?
• 41:32So that is considering wind speed, wind direction,
• 41:36humidity, relative humility,
• 41:38and air surface temperature, obviously.
• 41:42But it's an indicator, it's an index,
• 41:43it's not an information that is being provided
• 41:45by the National Weather Service, for example,
• 41:47because what they're providing you
• 41:48is heat index or air surface temperature.
• 41:53But we are actually seeing and slightly increasing
• 41:58or slightly system higher, right?
• 42:00The mortality,
• 42:01and this is something that we observe during the Summer,
• 42:04which it makes a lot of sense, right?
• 42:06We also observe that COVID 19 patients
• 42:10are most likely to die when we do have also other allergens
• 42:16that are associated with molds and spores in Puerto Rico.
• 42:21So that's another natural sources of air pollution,
• 42:23as I mentioned.
• 42:25And also when we had starting adjusting
• 42:30all this analysis per age and per season,
• 42:33we are observing that actually
• 42:35the numbers are continuing to rise
• 42:37and are even higher for COVID 19 mortality,
• 42:41as we could be expected.
• 42:42And again, in this case,
• 42:44we are not considering the vaccine because we close
• 42:48prior to the vaccination period in Puerto Rico,
• 42:52so we close it until March 2021.
• 42:55Vaccine is another story,
• 42:57and vaccination is changing obviously
• 42:59it might change all of these results,
• 43:01and the technology from the medical component,
• 43:06because there are new treatments,
• 43:07there are innovations in medicines,
• 43:10and a lot of other things that are helping
• 43:12for the patient not to die because of the COVID-19.
• 43:18In terms of other respiratory diseases,
• 43:20we also observe that aerosol optical depth
• 43:22is also associated with the mortality
• 43:25of ischemic heart disease for Puerto Ricans.
• 43:29And also it is consistent even when you are adjusting this
• 43:34per year, per season, per age,
• 43:36and the different adjusting that can be done
• 43:39using the Poisson model assumption
• 43:42observations and the regulation analysis that we did.
• 43:46For further considerations I think that
• 43:49we are hunger to analyze the medical records
• 43:53because we are still doing the data entry.
• 43:55We still have only numbers as I show you
• 43:58in terms of increases in hospital admissions
• 44:02and emergency room visits.
• 44:04And so we were more able to analyze
• 44:06and to have a better results with mortality.
• 44:08But mortality is only that is of the eyebrows meaning that
• 44:11if you are able to identify that mortality
• 44:15is increasing because of some specific conditions
• 44:19you might expect that also you might expect to see
• 44:23a lot of people searching for medical attention,
• 44:25but are not that fragile to die, for example,
• 44:29and some others that are getting affected,
• 44:31but not even considering
• 44:33to search for medical attention, right?
• 44:35So these are important findings because for Puerto Rico,
• 44:40I think that we are not only developing
• 44:42the early warning system for a hazard
• 44:45that is deteriorating public health in the region,
• 44:48but also this is one of the first time
• 44:50that we can provide evidence that the Saharan dust
• 44:53is in somehow related with mortality.
• 44:56As well again, partially attributable.
• 44:58Something is a statistical analysis,
• 45:01and some other is that by doing the qualitative analysis,
• 45:05talking with the physician and with the experts,
• 45:07with the informants,
• 45:08we might be able to explain better
• 45:11how this hazard is deteriorating
• 45:15the health of their patients.
• 45:17We still have a lot of other questions
• 45:20that need to be answered in order to identify
• 45:23the vulnerable patients and population.
• 45:25I think that it's important
• 45:27that we are developing early warning system.
• 45:29You need to identify your target population,
• 45:32because this is how exactly,
• 45:34if you are talking about the population
• 45:36that are getting flooded or not.
• 45:38So you need to address your communication,
• 45:41your risk, your advisories
• 45:44to the more sensitive groups in order for them
• 45:48to take precautions before the arrival of this dust cloud.
• 45:55So we will continue working on this
• 45:58and we'll stop sharing my screen,
• 46:01and I'll be happy to answer whatever question you may have.
• 46:07<v ->Thank you so much for the wonderful presentation Pablo.</v>
• 46:10And just a reminder to the audience
• 46:13that if you have any questions,
• 46:15please do put them in the chat box.
• 46:18And well, for this seminar, we have 19 students attending,
• 46:22and we actually have already collected
• 46:26some of the questions from the students.
• 46:28So while the audience
• 46:30are putting their questions in the chat box,
• 46:33we are to start with two questions from students.
• 46:38Actually, there are two types of questions
• 46:41the students are mostly interested in.
• 46:43The first one is actually, Pablo you show us how to
• 46:47distangle the interactions between the dust and COVID
• 46:51and the all the environmental factors.
• 46:54So many students actually are wondering
• 46:57how to control for confounding factors
• 47:00like from human behavior.
• 47:03Like people may spend more time in doors
• 47:05during the Saharan dust.
• 47:10<v ->That's a pretty good question.</v>
• 47:12With the data that we have
• 47:13from mortality and medical records,
• 47:17it's a little bit complicated
• 47:18to have that kind of information.
• 47:21The only way that I will say that it will be useful
• 47:24to receive more accurate information in that regard
• 47:27will be by doing interviews.
• 47:30One on one interviews with the patients, for example,
• 47:35identifying or doing focus group directly with all of them.
• 47:39That's another way on
• 47:40how can you measure exposure, right?
• 47:43Well not measure,
• 47:44but at least having a proxy
• 47:45on the exposure for Saharan dust.
• 47:49So yes, it was complicated
• 47:50because during this Godzilla dust event,
• 47:52we were struggling with COVID 19.
• 47:55One of the recommendations already in Puerto Rico,
• 47:57and I think that is also in the United States as well happen
• 48:00is that the agency were telling,
• 48:02were suggesting the population to open the windows and doors
• 48:06to let the clean air to get in. (laughs)
• 48:09So, we'd receive a lot of memes
• 48:11from people that were saying,
• 48:12"Okay, so if I open the doors and the windows,
• 48:14then my house will be full of sand. (laughs)
• 48:18So what do I do?
• 48:20I cannot open the windows.
• 48:21I cannot open the doors
• 48:24because I have an outdoor hazard,
• 48:27but if I keep it closed,
• 48:29then if someone bring the virus inside of my house,
• 48:32I might probably get infected with the virus."
• 48:35So yes, it was a little bit not funny,
• 48:39but a lot of people took it that way.
• 48:42And you can see a lot of memes that came out
• 48:44during that season.
• 48:47<v ->Thanks Pablo, yeah, this is very complicated.</v>
• 48:49And when it gets to real policy recommendations,
• 48:52I think a lot more research is needed.
• 48:56I do see another question from Robert Dubrow,
• 48:59Professor Robert Dubrow is the director,
• 49:01faculty director of our center.
• 49:04So he ask, "Is there evidence that climate change
• 49:07is affecting Saharan dust in the Caribbean?
• 49:11For example, is there anything known about
• 49:13what caused the Godzilla dust event?"
• 49:17And I also wanna mention that this question,
• 49:20it combines with one of the students question
• 49:22that wondering, not just dust,
• 49:26but also other like hurricanes in Puerto Rico,
• 49:30"Does climate change, you know, introduce some additional,
• 49:33these extreme weather events and can they play a role
• 49:37in the COVID prediction in Puerto Rico?"
• 49:39So two separate questions, but kind of related, thank you.
• 49:43<v ->Let me see, how can I address this?</v>
• 49:45And thank you for both questions.
• 49:47Let me mention something very quickly
• 49:49related to the other one, to the first one.
• 49:51By using masks,
• 49:53one of the recommendations from the CDC,
• 49:56we are unable to minimize the exposure to this dust,
• 50:01right, to these aerosols.
• 50:02So that's something very important,
• 50:03and we need also to highlight,
• 50:05because most of the people in Puerto Rico
• 50:07are using mask outdoors, even outdoors, right,
• 50:09so that's important.
• 50:10Okay, so in terms of climate change,
• 50:12yes, there is evidence that in some cases that
• 50:16the Saharan desert is getting bigger.
• 50:20So that means, that could mean, let me say it like that,
• 50:24that most likely the source of mineral dust
• 50:28could be increasing in terms of tons of sediments
• 50:32that could be lifted by the air.
• 50:34But we need some other kind of conditions
• 50:36to make this dust to arrive to the Caribbean.
• 50:39And for example,
• 50:40wind directions and wind patterns, right?
• 50:42So if you don't have the wind velocity
• 50:45or the capacity to lift dust particles
• 50:47to be transported, floating in the atmosphere
• 50:49to the other side, it's another story.
• 50:53But yes, the source is increasing in the Saharan desert.
• 50:56So it's mean that it's getting dryer some places in Africa
• 50:59and also to the Southern part of Europe.
• 51:02So most likely, again,
• 51:04providing more sources of mineral dust to the atmosphere.
• 51:08If the trade winds continue to be the same,
• 51:11we could say that probably it will increase
• 51:15the amount of dust that we are receiving.
• 51:18But until now, there is no evidence suggesting
• 51:21that we are receiving most dust than ever.
• 51:24We do receive a record
• 51:27that it was marked by the Godzilla dust event,
• 51:29but it's not marketing a trend, okay?
• 51:33In terms of other sources of extreme event,
• 51:36for example, yes, hurricane Maria
• 51:39devastated millions and millions of trees and vegetation
• 51:42and green infrastructure, right?
• 51:44So right after hurricane Maria with a lot of humidity,
• 51:48we marked another record for mold in Puerto Rico,
• 51:53and mold is another natural source of air pollutions
• 51:56other allergens, right.
• 51:57And that was amazing.
• 51:58So hurricane Maria switched a little bit
• 52:01the pattern and the behaviors of these other allergens
• 52:05that are associated with the vegetation.
• 52:08And so meaning that these powerful extreme events,
• 52:11have the capacity also to change
• 52:13how these other allergens
• 52:15are being distributed along the year.
• 52:20<v ->Thanks Pablo, yeah.</v>
• 52:21I just want to mention one of the things that
• 52:25in terms of the dust,
• 52:27there's also some researcher in from the European side,
• 52:30say the Sahara dust
• 52:31also larger in size than the PM2.5,
• 52:34they do bring a lot of health effects
• 52:37to the respiratory systems.
• 52:38So I think in addition to the COVID work,
• 52:43your Sahara dust work is also very interesting.
• 52:47I do encourage audience, if you do have questions,
• 52:50please feel free to put it in the chat box.
• 52:53And if not then in the meantime,
• 52:55I want to ask a final question from the students.
• 52:58Actually, the students are very excited
• 53:00about the public health early warning system
• 53:04that you're creating.
• 53:05And they're wondering, you know,
• 53:07you study a lot about the interactions
• 53:09of these seasonal pattern, the environment factors,
• 53:13and they are wondering, like,
• 53:15"When you actually put them into the policy recommendations,
• 53:20what are the, you know,
• 53:23experience or source you have
• 53:25and how effective that could be?"
• 53:28<v ->Well, I have two great experience in Puerto Rico,</v>
• 53:32mainly with the Puerto Rico Department of Health,
• 53:34because you have two different agencies
• 53:36that are responsible of working with this, right?
• 53:39The National Weather Service
• 53:40is the agency responsible of monitoring the weather
• 53:43and the atmospheric conditions,
• 53:44but they're not responsible of issuing any kind of warning
• 53:47to protect public health,
• 53:49this is the responsibility of the Department of Health.
• 53:52So you need that coordination,
• 53:53one agency to monitor the weather
• 53:57and to provide that warning for the population.
• 54:00And the other one to tell the population what to do,
• 54:03because this is a public health issue, right?
• 54:06So I started working with them
• 54:08since the very first beginning.
• 54:10Both of them were very committed,
• 54:12wanted to work with us very closely,
• 54:15and so that's how we gained that trust.
• 54:18So now all of us together, we're working on that.
• 54:21So the recommendations are coming out
• 54:23from meeting groups that we're having,
• 54:26from all of our team,
• 54:28epidemiologists, physicians
• 54:29and climate atmospheric scientists,
• 54:32working with the National Weather Service
• 54:33and the Department of Health.
• 54:35And all of them are listed,
• 54:37so once the warnings are posted by the Department of Health,
• 54:42then you will see the list that is the list of actions
• 54:46that you need to do or to follow in the case,
• 54:49if you are as part of the sensitive group.
• 54:53<v ->Thanks Pablo, that's excellent point.</v>
• 54:56I think we anchor your point that, you know,
• 54:59to deal with the COVID pandemic also climate change,
• 55:02we need a multi department and the collaborations
• 55:06from researchers across
• 55:08and also from different governmental agencies.
• 55:13There's a follow up question from Rob,
• 55:16"How far in advance can you predict
• 55:18the levels of Saharan dust in the early warning systems?"
• 55:22<v ->Well, now I suppose that we might,</v>
• 55:25we might have up to 72 hours from now
• 55:31and will be available somewhere
• 55:34between this week and the other one.
• 55:36But for now, if you go into the webpage,
• 55:38what you will see is only the real time information.
• 55:42We're still working on the early component (laughs)
• 55:47to provide the information in advance.
• 55:50So we have this year to continue working completely
• 55:53on the forecasting.
• 55:54Yeah, for 72 hours.
• 55:56We will have it very soon this week or the next week.
• 56:00And we will have one full year
• 56:02to work it with the decision makers
• 56:04and with the community on how to improve it.
• 56:07To test it.
• 56:09<v ->Yeah, thank you.</v>
• 56:10Thank you, Pablo,
• 56:11for the wonderful presentation and very engaged discussion.
• 56:15And thank you all for joining us today.
• 56:16I think let's give the final,
• 56:19like applause to Pablo for the wonderful talk today,
• 56:23and thank you everyone for coming.
• 56:26<v ->Thank you for inviting me.</v>
• 56:28Happy to be here. <v ->Bye everyone.</v>
• 56:33<v ->Thanks Pablo.</v>
• 56:34<v ->Ciao Robert, good to see you.</v>