COVID-19, Science and the Way Forward on Climate Change

Transcript

• 00:01- So I'm gonna talk about COVID-19, Science,
• 00:04and the way forward on climate change,
• 00:06and this talk will be more conceptual
• 00:09and not so much presenting my research.
• 00:12So next slide, please.
• 00:16So firstly,
• 00:18there's really no evidence that climate change
• 00:20caused the COVID-19 pandemic.
• 00:23However we should note that climate change does cause
• 00:27increased spread of infectious diseases
• 00:29and could contribute to future pandemics.
• 00:32So simply put, mosquitoes, ticks,
• 00:35and other disease vectors do better in a warming world.
• 00:40Floods, which are more frequent under climate change,
• 00:43spread waterborne diseases, or infections, I should say.
• 00:47And with regard to future pandemics,
• 00:50climate change causes migration
• 00:53of both human and animal populations
• 00:56and this facilitates mixing of these populations
• 00:59which could contribute to viruses
• 01:02spilling over from animals to humans.
• 01:05Next slide, please.
• 01:08However,
• 01:10whoops, could you go back one?
• 01:12Thanks.
• 01:13However climate change and enhanced disasters
• 01:16will exacerbate the COVID-19 pandemic.
• 01:20I think that's almost guaranteed.
• 01:22So we could see floods in the Midwest.
• 01:25We almost certainly will see wildfires
• 01:27in California later in the season.
• 01:30Almost certainly we'll see hurricanes in the Caribbean
• 01:33along the Gulf Coast or along the Eastern U.S.,
• 01:36and those will produce climate refugees
• 01:41who will likely be housed in shelters.
• 01:44And of course, during a pandemic,
• 01:47we don't want people housed in shelters,
• 01:49that it's closed quarters
• 01:52and not a good idea.
• 01:55There could be destruction
• 01:56of healthcare system infrastructure
• 01:58by hurricanes, wildfires, et cetera,
• 02:02and we could see more overwhelming
• 02:04of the healthcare systems,
• 02:06the various healthcare systems
• 02:08with both disaster-related patients,
• 02:10in addition to COVID-19 patients.
• 02:15Another example of how climate change
• 02:18and COVID-19 pandemic could interact
• 02:22is the Locust plague, which you've probably heard about,
• 02:26that's going on in East Africa.
• 02:27It's been happening for the last several months.
• 02:30It's thought that very heavy rains in East Africa
• 02:34precipitated this locust plague,
• 02:36probably related to climate change.
• 02:41The Locust plague has been causing agricultural failures,
• 02:45leading to food insecurity,
• 02:47leading to malnourished people
• 02:49who have weakened immune systems
• 02:51who will be more susceptible to the virus.
• 02:55Next slide, please.
• 02:57So there are many parallels
• 02:59between the pandemic and climate change.
• 03:01So let me state some of those.
• 03:03So first, of course,
• 03:05there have been long-standing warnings
• 03:07by scientists that have not been heeded
• 03:10about the risk of pandemics and about climate change.
• 03:15And since they've not been heeded,
• 03:17prevention and preparedness efforts
• 03:19have been woefully inadequate.
• 03:22Secondly,
• 03:25for both the pandemic and climate change,
• 03:28they're both disasters for public health
• 03:31and for the economy, and we'll get back to the economy.
• 03:35Both prey on the most vulnerable,
• 03:37including the elderly, poor and people of color.
• 03:43For both, an effective response requires early action,
• 03:48federal government leadership, international cooperation,
• 03:53and unprecedented societal mobilization.
• 03:56So for climate change,
• 04:00these four
• 04:02responses
• 04:03have been
• 04:05extremely poor.
• 04:07I'd say actually
• 04:10somewhat better for the pandemic.
• 04:12We could have a discussion about that,
• 04:14but also a lot of failings for the pandemic as well.
• 04:18Next slide, please.
• 04:22So both crises are urgent, but on different timescales.
• 04:26For the pandemic,
• 04:28it will probably play out over a period
• 04:30of months to several years.
• 04:34We could say it's the worst acute
• 04:36public health crisis in a century.
• 04:39I would argue that it's probably
• 04:41not the worst, at least not yet,
• 04:43not the worst public health crisis in a century.
• 04:45We have to compare it with the tobacco epidemic,
• 04:49obesity, HIV.
• 04:55So it remains to be seen where this
• 04:57pandemic will be situated overall,
• 04:59but certainly as an acute public health crisis,
• 05:02it's the worst.
• 05:05With regard to climate change,
• 05:07the timescale is decades to centuries,
• 05:11and it's possibly the worst
• 05:12public health crisis in human history,
• 05:15depending on what we do over the next decade or two.
• 05:18Next slide, please.
• 05:22So both crises can be solved by science.
• 05:26For the pandemic, we've been talking a lot, of course,
• 05:29about physical distancing, testing,
• 05:32contact tracing, quarantining, PPE,
• 05:36ventilators,
• 05:38the need to develop through scientific research
• 05:41antiviral medications, as well as a vaccine.
• 05:47So I think it's pretty clear
• 05:49how science needs to be used to solve the pandemic.
• 05:53With regard to climate change,
• 05:55scientists have shown that it's real,
• 05:58that it's caused by humans,
• 06:00that it's harming public health,
• 06:02and that the longer we delay, the worse it will get.
• 06:06And through science, we actually know what the solution is,
• 06:10which essentially is to convert
• 06:11from a fossil-fuel-based economy
• 06:14to a renewable-energy-based economy.
• 06:17That's a tall order, but as we'll talk about, it's doable.
• 06:21Next slide, please.
• 06:25So, the world economy has taken a big hit, as you all know.
• 06:30It's gonna need to be rebuilt
• 06:33and I would suggest that there are
• 06:35two paths for rebuilding the world economy.
• 06:38There's the path backwards,
• 06:40in which we would double down on our fossil fuel economy,
• 06:43or the path forward,
• 06:45in which we would seize this unprecedented opportunity
• 06:49to build a renewable energy economy.
• 06:52Next slide.
• 06:55So first, the path backwards.
• 06:58This path would pit the environment against the economy.
• 07:02It's a tried-and-true tactic that's been used
• 07:08and we continue to rollback environmental regulations
• 07:11and suspend enforcement.
• 07:15There will be stimulus infrastructure
• 07:18and/or infrastructure packages,
• 07:20no matter what the path,
• 07:22and the path backwards,
• 07:24that we'd have a package that first has no
• 07:28environmental requirements for bailed-out industries,
• 07:31like airlines, cruise ships and industrial agriculture,
• 07:35and that, second,
• 07:36resuscitates and entrenches the fossil fuel industry,
• 07:41which as you know, is currently kind of on its heels,
• 07:44and
• 07:47the path backwards will attempt
• 07:49to do that for decades to come.
• 07:52Next slide, please.
• 07:54So then there's the path forward.
• 07:56So first, I would say,
• 07:59and this isn't the main part of the path forward,
• 08:02but I think it's important to note,
• 08:05we would retain what we've learned during the pandemic.
• 08:08So that would include
• 08:10reducing business travel by relying
• 08:13more heavily on video conferencing.
• 08:15We've all or a lot of us have really
• 08:18taken up video conferencing in a big way
• 08:20and we know how to do it and it's actually quite useful.
• 08:28And of course, if we reduce business travel,
• 08:30that reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
• 08:33We could see an increase in remote working,
• 08:35which many of us have been doing
• 08:37and we've got a taste for that.
• 08:40It's not that hard to do,
• 08:42and that would also decrease greenhouse gas emissions.
• 08:46We could produce more of our own goods,
• 08:48such as drugs, medical equipment,
• 08:51and personal protective equipment
• 08:54in order to reduce vulnerability
• 08:55to globalized supply networks.
• 08:58So that would reduce shipping
• 09:00and also greenhouse gas emissions
• 09:03and we can convert
• 09:06healthcare systems from single-use to reusable PPE
• 09:10masks, gowns, gloves.
• 09:13Single-use is tremendously wasteful
• 09:15and has a larger greenhouse gas footprint
• 09:19than doing reusable.
• 09:21Next slide, please.
• 09:25So the main element of the path forward
• 09:27is to heavily invest in renewable energy.
• 09:31So the foundation of a transition
• 09:34to a renewable energy economy
• 09:37is to generate electricity with renewable energy.
• 09:41So once that's done, we can electrify transportation,
• 09:45heating of buildings, and industry.
• 09:49All of that's gonna require a huge amount of electricity.
• 09:52So it's important to develop
• 09:54energy efficiency and conservation,
• 09:56which could include
• 09:58dense well-designed livable cities
• 10:02that are a lot more energy efficient,
• 10:05developing mass transportation,
• 10:07which is also much more energy efficient
• 10:09than
• 10:12single-occupied automobiles,
• 10:15and high-speed
• 10:17inter-city trains to replace regional air travel.
• 10:22Parenthetically air travel is one of the complicated issues
• 10:27with regard to accomplishing zero greenhouse gas emissions
• 10:31because we don't know yet how we're gonna fly airplanes
• 10:36without burning fossil fuels.
• 10:40Then the final element that I'll mention
• 10:42that's related to all this
• 10:43is carbon dioxide capture and storage.
• 10:48Unfortunately the world has dithered so long
• 10:51with regard to reducing greenhouse gas emissions
• 10:54that in addition to reducing emissions,
• 10:58we're gonna have to also
• 11:00capture and store CO2.
• 11:03Now that could be done through natural mechanisms
• 11:05by reforestation, and also agricultural soil management,
• 11:10which, unfortunately, that might not be enough.
• 11:13And so people are trying to develop technologies
• 11:17to remove CO2 from the atmosphere,
• 11:19and then store it underground.
• 11:21Those technologies are not there yet,
• 11:24but we could invest in research on those technologies.
• 11:30Next slide, please.
• 11:34Then the final part of the path forward that I see
• 11:37is to invest in science education and literacy.
• 11:41So the COVID-19 experience I think shows
• 11:43that people respond to clear
• 11:46science-based messages from trusted sources.
• 11:49So
• 11:51it hasn't been perfect, obviously,
• 11:53and we haven't seen those science-based messages
• 11:57from some of our leadership,
• 11:59but we have seen it from other leadership,
• 12:01a lot of the governors,
• 12:03from medical leadership, such as Doctor Fauci and others,
• 12:08and it's actually been to me quite remarkable
• 12:14how much adherence there has been
• 12:17to the physical distancing.
• 12:20Now we might see some degradation and change in that.
• 12:24There's gonna be political demagoguery
• 12:27and there's a lot of misinformation on the internet,
• 12:30but nevertheless I think
• 12:33we could point to a positive experience
• 12:34with regards to science communication for COVID-19.
• 12:39So we need to do the same thing with climate change
• 12:41and we need to educate the general public, policy makers,
• 12:45medical and public health professionals,
• 12:47and really students at all levels about climate change,
• 12:50about its public health impacts
• 12:52and the feasibility of both solutions.
• 12:55Next slide, please.
• 12:58So this is
• 13:00a little complicated,
• 13:01but I think it's an important slide.
• 13:03So I'll walk you through it.
• 13:06This is looking at generation of electricity
• 13:09by different types of renewable energy
• 13:12and it's comparing the cost in dollars per kilowatt hour
• 13:18on the y-axis
• 13:19between 2010
• 13:22and 2018.
• 13:24It's important to note the kind of light tan coloring,
• 13:29and that's the fossil fuel cost range.
• 13:34Now, just to go through this quickly, then,
• 13:38you could see that for bioenergy, geothermal, and hydro,
• 13:42that those are all at the lower end
• 13:44of the fossil fuel cost range.
• 13:47Then very notably for solar
• 13:50voltaics,
• 13:51between 2010
• 13:53and 2018, we saw a dramatic drop in costs.
• 13:57We're now, in 2018,
• 13:59the cost is in the low range of the fossil fuel cost range.
• 14:03Concentrated solar power,
• 14:05which is another type of solar power,
• 14:08that I won't go into the details,
• 14:10there's been a very dramatic drop as well,
• 14:13although it's actually still a bit
• 14:15above the fossil fuel cost range.
• 14:18And then for offshore wind,
• 14:19has gone down to the mid range for fossil fuels
• 14:23and onshore wind is
• 14:25at the lower end now in terms of the range of fossil fuels.
• 14:29So the point I'd like to make here is
• 14:32that fossil fuel advocates
• 14:35say renewable energy would be nice,
• 14:38but it's really not feasible, it's not cost effective,
• 14:41but the fact is that that's not true,
• 14:44that we've reached a point technologically
• 14:47that it is feasible to make this transition
• 14:50from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
• 14:52There are still a few technological
• 14:56improvements that need to be made,
• 14:57such as battery storage of energy,
• 15:01but it's really there
• 15:04and so this is very feasible.
• 15:07It just requires political will
• 15:10and the necessary investments.
• 15:13Final slide, please.
• 15:16So I'd like to end
• 15:18with this quote that, "optimism is a moral imperative,"
• 15:23and that's because pessimism is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
• 15:28So I think
• 15:29we have a long road ahead with regard to climate change,
• 15:33but it's important to have optimism
• 15:36to motivate and sustain our work.
• 15:39So, thank you.