2015
Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Wenzel N, Gaffney SG, Townsend JP, Meyers LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, Altice FL, Atkins KE, Galvani AP. Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2015, 9: e0003794. PMID: 26024528, PMCID: PMC4449200, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003794.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsRing vaccinationCase isolationContact tracingLimited initial supplyPost-exposure protectionMass vaccination campaignNon-pharmaceutical control measuresPublic health agenciesCandidate vaccinesVaccination campaignVaccinationCase contactsEbola casesEbola transmissionHealth agenciesIncidence dataLow efficacyVaccineEbola outbreakEffective alternativeMore contactEbolaSierra LeoneBeneficial supplementControl measures
2013
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy. Epidemics 2013, 6: 37-45. PMID: 24593920, PMCID: PMC4316830, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsProbabilistic uncertainty analysisParameter uncertaintiesTypical sensitivity analysisUncertainty analysisDynamic modelDynamic infectious disease modelsSensitivity analysisMathematical modelingEpidemiological modelingInfectious disease modelIntervention policiesPublic health intervention policiesGlobal uncertaintyPolicy makersModel predictionsEpidemiological outcomesQuantitative predictionsProbability of successPoint estimatesPolicyUncertaintyLevel of vaccinationRelative importanceModelingHealth policy