Seminar in Public Health Modeling

Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of respiratory viruses

Insights from the Seattle Flu Study and high ­resolution mobile phone data

Event Details

Aggregated mobile device location data have been used extensively to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, but its relevance for other respiratory pathogens remains less understood. Understanding the influence of human mobility on endemic pathogens is crucial for predictive purposes, especially as perturbed circulation can lead to overlapping epidemics, putting extreme strain on healthcare systems. In this seminar, Perofsky will present research linking population behavior to the transmission dynamics of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle during pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years, using detailed data from a citywide respiratory pathogen surveillance study and high-resolution cellphone mobility data. She will highlight mobility metrics that are consistent leading indicators of outbreaks and compare patterns across pathogens with different transmission modes, seasonal cycles, and age distributions of infection. Lastly, she will discuss ongoing work exploring the effects of decreased social distancing and waning immunity on the post-pandemic reemergence of RSV in Seattle.

Dr. Perofsky is a research scientist in the Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine at the University of Washington and a guest researcher at the Fogarty International Center, U.S. National Institutes of Health. Prior to joining UW, she completed her PhD in Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior at the University of Texas at Austin and a postdoctoral fellowship at the Fogarty International Center, NIH. Dr. Perofslcy's research focuses on the ecological, evolutionary, and behavioral drivers of respiratory virus infections, with aims to improve infectious disease surveillance and better understand and predict recurring and emerging outbreaks. She applies statistical and computational approaches to study respiratory virus transmission patterns and epidemiology, with a particular focus on influenza and SARS-CoV-2. She also produces operational forecasts and projections of respiratory virus outbreaks.

YSPH values inclusion and access for all participants. If you have questions about accessibility or would like an accommodation, please contact lourdes.haynes@yale.edu.