2022
Randomization for the susceptibility effect of an infectious disease intervention
Eck DJ, Morozova O, Crawford FW. Randomization for the susceptibility effect of an infectious disease intervention. Journal Of Mathematical Biology 2022, 85: 37. PMID: 36127558, PMCID: PMC9809173, DOI: 10.1007/s00285-022-01801-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInfectious disease interventionsInfection outcomesInfection riskDisease interventionDirect effectRandomized trialsTreatment allocationInfectious disease transmissionStudy subjectsHarmful treatmentPathogen of interestInterventionOutcomesTreatmentRandomization designVaccineDisease transmissionSusceptibility effectsTrialsRiskRandomizationInfectionIndividualsVaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel
Prunas O, Warren JL, Crawford FW, Gazit S, Patalon T, Weinberger DM, Pitzer VE. Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel. Science 2022, 375: eabl4292. PMID: 35084937, PMCID: PMC9261115, DOI: 10.1126/science.abl4292.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsVaccine effectivenessSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Syndrome coronavirus 2Effectiveness of vaccinesEffectiveness of vaccinationTotal vaccine effectivenessSARS-CoV-2Household contactsSecond doseCoronavirus 2Household transmissionDelta variantDay 10VaccinationBNT162b2COVID-19InfectionChain binomial modelVaccineDoseImmunity
2021
One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut
Morozova O, Li ZR, Crawford FW. One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut. Scientific Reports 2021, 11: 20271. PMID: 34642405, PMCID: PMC8511264, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99590-5.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCOVID-19 disease progressionSARS-CoV-2 transmissionCase detection ratioPublic health surveillancePublic health policymakersInfection hospitalizationsCumulative incidenceEpidemiologic featuresClinical progressionCOVID-19 transmissionCOVID-19 projectionsDisease progressionFatality ratioHospital dataEffective reproduction numberHospitalizationHealth surveillanceTransmission riskSEIR-type modelHealth policymakersCOVID-19 epidemicEpidemic trajectoriesDisease transmissionInfectionProgressionIdentification of causal intervention effects under contagion
Cai X, Loh WW, Crawford FW. Identification of causal intervention effects under contagion. Journal Of Causal Inference 2021, 9: 9-38. PMID: 34676152, PMCID: PMC8528235, DOI: 10.1515/jci-2019-0033.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchIntervention effectsInfectious disease transmission dynamicsInfection outcomesDisease transmission dynamicsHIV vaccine trialsInfectious disease outcomesTransmission dynamicsEffects of interventionsVaccine effectsIntervention trialsVaccine trialsClinical evaluationDisease outcomeOutcome dataTrialsTreatment effectsOutcomesCausal estimandsEmpirical trialPartnership modelInfectionBinary outcome data
2020
Estimates of people who injected drugs within the last 12 months in Belgium based on a capture-recapture and multiplier method
Plettinckx E, Crawford FW, Antoine J, Gremeaux L, Van Baelen L. Estimates of people who injected drugs within the last 12 months in Belgium based on a capture-recapture and multiplier method. Drug And Alcohol Dependence 2020, 219: 108436. PMID: 33310486, PMCID: PMC7856246, DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2020.108436.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNew HCV infectionsNumber of PWIDProportion of PWIDLiver-related mortalityEstimates of peopleHarm reduction service providersHCV infectionTreatment registersPWIDNational estimatesCapture-recapture methodologyBaseline dataDrugsNumber of peopleMonthsTotal populationReliable baseline dataSterile needleTotal numberPopulationYearsInfectionMortalityRepeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations
Chang JT, Crawford FW, Kaplan EH. Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations. Health Care Management Science 2020, 24: 305-318. PMID: 33200374, PMCID: PMC7669307, DOI: 10.1007/s10729-020-09526-0.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2018
Dynamics of the HIV outbreak and response in Scott County, IN, USA, 2011–15: a modelling study
Gonsalves GS, Crawford FW. Dynamics of the HIV outbreak and response in Scott County, IN, USA, 2011–15: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV 2018, 5: e569-e577. PMID: 30220531, PMCID: PMC6192548, DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(18)30176-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsUndiagnosed HIV infectionHIV infectionUS National InstitutesHIV outbreakPublic health responseCase-finding rateNumber of infectionsNational InstituteHealth responseCumulative HIV incidenceHIV transmission ratesEarly public health responsesHarm reduction interventionsScott CountyPublic health emergencyHIV testingHIV incidenceHIV servicesUS CentersNascent epidemicsPrevention servicesInfectionDisease controlSame interventionDrug abuse
2015
Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium?
Pitzer VE, Bilcke J, Heylen E, Crawford FW, Callens M, De Smet F, Van Ranst M, Zeller M, Matthijnssens J. Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium? Scientific Reports 2015, 5: 18585. PMID: 26687288, PMCID: PMC4685644, DOI: 10.1038/srep18585.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsVaccine introductionStrain-specific vaccine effectivenessVaccine-derived immunityRotavirus vaccine introductionVaccine-induced immunityAbsence of vaccinationRotavirus populationLarge-scale vaccinationDistribution of genotypesRotavirus gastroenteritisVaccine effectivenessHomotypic strainHospitalization dataPredominant rotavirusStrain replacementVaccinationVaccineImmunityInfectionViral populationsPopulationGastroenteritisYearsIncidenceRotavirusObesity not associated with severity among hospitalized adults with seasonal influenza virus infection
Braun ES, Crawford FW, Desai MM, Meek J, Kirley PD, Miller L, Anderson EJ, Oni O, Ryan P, Lynfield R, Bargsten M, Bennett NM, Lung KL, Thomas A, Mermel E, Lindegren ML, Schaffner W, Price A, Chaves SS. Obesity not associated with severity among hospitalized adults with seasonal influenza virus infection. Infection 2015, 43: 569-575. PMID: 26148927, DOI: 10.1007/s15010-015-0802-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSeasonal influenza virus infectionMultivariate logistic regression modelSeasonal influenza severityLaboratory-confirmed influenzaRisk of pneumoniaInfluenza virus infectionLogistic regression modelsHospitalized adultsICU admissionObese patientsSevere obesityInfluenza severityArtificial ventilationVirus infectionWeight categoriesObesityPneumoniaSeverityRegression modelsAdultsUnderweightPatientsAdmissionInfectionInfluenza