2020
Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California
Menzies NA, Parriott A, Shrestha S, Dowdy DW, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Marks SM, Hill AN, Winston CA, Asay GR, Barry P, Readhead A, Flood J, Kahn JG, Shete PB. Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 201: 356-365. PMID: 31626560, PMCID: PMC7464931, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.201907-1289oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceTB casesAdditional interventionsTuberculosis epidemiologyPublic health prioritizationTreatment of LTBIInfection control interventionsPotential intervention effectsLTBI testingTB servicesLTBI diagnosisLTBI prevalenceAverage annual declineEpidemiologic projectionsSustained reductionTreatment interventionsControl interventionsTB determinantsDefinitive dataIntervention effectsAnnual declineLocal transmissionIncidenceLTBIIntervention
2018
The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study
Yaesoubi R, Trotter C, Colijn C, Yaesoubi M, Colombini A, Resch S, Kristiansen PA, LaForce FM, Cohen T. The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study. PLOS Medicine 2018, 15: e1002495. PMID: 29364884, PMCID: PMC5783340, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002495.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsMeningococcal casesConjugate vaccineMeningitis beltVaccination strategiesMeningococcal serogroupsStrain replacementNationwide immunization campaignPolyvalent meningococcal vaccineMeningococcal conjugate vaccineCurrent World Health OrganizationAfrican meningitis beltAlternative vaccination strategiesAlternative vaccination policiesWorld Health OrganizationMeningococcal transmissionReactive campaignsMeningococcal vaccineImmunization campaignVaccination policyPolyvalent vaccineMeningitis epidemicsReactive vaccinationVaccine policyVaccine price
2016
Tradeoffs in Introduction Policies for the Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Bedaquiline: A Model-Based Analysis
Kunkel A, Cobelens FG, Cohen T. Tradeoffs in Introduction Policies for the Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Bedaquiline: A Model-Based Analysis. PLOS Medicine 2016, 13: e1002142. PMID: 27727274, PMCID: PMC5058480, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002142.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTreatment of tuberculosisMDR-TB treatmentTB treatmentSecondary casesDrug-resistant (XDR) TBResistance patternsLife expectancyMultidrug-resistant TB patientsDrug bedaquilineMDR-TB drugsAnti-tuberculosis drug bedaquilineCulture conversionMDR patientsTB patientsMortality benefitBedaquiline resistanceMedian timeRisk of resistanceTB drugsDecrease transmissionHypothetical cohortSources of heterogeneityDrug interactionsInitial cohortTime of initiationCost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models
Menzies NA, Gomez GB, Bozzani F, Chatterjee S, Foster N, Baena IG, Laurence YV, Qiang S, Siroka A, Sweeney S, Verguet S, Arinaminpathy N, Azman AS, Bendavid E, Chang ST, Cohen T, Denholm JT, Dowdy DW, Eckhoff PA, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Handel A, Huynh GH, Lalli M, Lin HH, Mandal S, McBryde ES, Pandey S, Salomon JA, Suen SC, Sumner T, Trauer JM, Wagner BG, Whalen CC, Wu CY, Boccia D, Chadha VK, Charalambous S, Chin DP, Churchyard G, Daniels C, Dewan P, Ditiu L, Eaton JW, Grant AD, Hippner P, Hosseini M, Mametja D, Pretorius C, Pillay Y, Rade K, Sahu S, Wang L, Houben RMGJ, Kimerling ME, White RG, Vassall A. Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models. The Lancet Global Health 2016, 4: e816-e826. PMID: 27720689, PMCID: PMC5527122, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30265-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsChinaCost-Benefit AnalysisDelivery of Health CareForecastingGoalsHealth Care CostsHealth ExpendituresHealth PolicyHealth ResourcesHealth Services AccessibilityHealth Services Needs and DemandHumansIndiaModels, TheoreticalPatient Acceptance of Health CareQuality-Adjusted Life YearsSouth AfricaTuberculosisConceptsPatient-incurred costsTuberculosis servicesConventional cost-effectiveness thresholdsHigh-burden countriesEnd TB StrategySubstantial health gainsNet cost savingsResource implicationsCost-effectiveness thresholdMost intervention approachesTB StrategyTuberculosis incidenceMost interventionsSocietal perspectiveHealth gainsIntervention mixMelinda Gates FoundationSubstantial healthHealth effectsCurrent practiceExpansion of accessIntervention approachesEmpirical cost dataCost dataInterventionIdentifying cost‐effective dynamic policies to control epidemics
Yaesoubi R, Cohen T. Identifying cost‐effective dynamic policies to control epidemics. Statistics In Medicine 2016, 35: 5189-5209. PMID: 27449759, PMCID: PMC5096998, DOI: 10.1002/sim.7047.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNet health benefitHighest net health benefitHealth benefitsTransmission-reducing interventionsDynamic policiesNovel viral pathogensCurrent interventionsHealth policyMathematical decision modelViral pathogensMonetary outcomesPolicy makersInterventionPolicyDecision modelStatic policyEpidemicEpidemic dataVaccinationVaccinePerformance measures
2014
The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa
Pretorius C, Menzies NA, Chindelevitch L, Cohen T, Cori A, Eaton JW, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Hallett TB, Salomon JA, Stover J, White RG, Dodd PJ. The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa. AIDS 2014, 28: s25-s34. PMID: 24468944, DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000000085.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAntiretroviral therapyTB incidenceART expansionHIV treatment policyHIV-positive individualsART eligibility criteriaTuberculosis outcomesART eligibilitySurvival benefitTB burdenTB casesHIV transmissionART coverageHIV treatmentHIV epidemicMortality reductionPositive individualsEligibility criteriaTreatment policyART servicesTuberculosisIncidenceCurrent eligibilityIndependent mathematical modelsRecent findings
2013
Data needs for evidence-based decisions: a tuberculosis modeler's ‘wish list’ [Review article]
Dowdy DW, Dye C, Cohen T. Data needs for evidence-based decisions: a tuberculosis modeler's ‘wish list’ [Review article]. The International Journal Of Tuberculosis And Lung Disease 2013, 17: 866-877. PMID: 23743307, PMCID: PMC4041555, DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.12.0573.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAnimalsDecision MakingEvidence-Based MedicineHealth PolicyHumansModels, TheoreticalPolicy MakingTuberculosis
2012
Linking Surveillance with Action against Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis
Cohen T, Manjourides J, Hedt-Gauthier B. Linking Surveillance with Action against Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2012, 186: 399-401. PMID: 22592806, PMCID: PMC3443807, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.201203-0394pp.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisForms of TBDrug-resistant TBManagement of patientsDrug-resistant tuberculosisSecond-line drugsEffective public health responseDrug susceptibility testingPublic health responseQuality-assured treatmentMDRTB treatmentIncident casesHigh burdenProgrammatic dataHealth responseDrug resistanceSusceptibility testingImproved surveillance methodsPopulation subgroupsSurveillance methodsSurveillance activitiesTuberculosisClear roleTreatmentRecent global estimates
2011
Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections: Influenza as an Example
Yaesoubi R, Cohen T. Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections: Influenza as an Example. PLOS ONE 2011, 6: e24043. PMID: 21915279, PMCID: PMC3167826, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024043.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHealth policyTransmission-reducing interventionsOverall population healthType of interventionAntiviral drugsNovel infectious pathogensOverall healthEmerging InfectionsInfectious pathogensMask useCurrent interventionsCourse of epidemicsPopulation healthInterventionEpidemicPublic healthVaccineInfluenzaHealthDisease spreadSocial distancingCurrent informationInfectionA modelling framework to support the selection and implementation of new tuberculosis diagnostic tools [State of the art series. Operational research. Number 8 in the series]
Lin HH, Langley I, Mwenda R, Doulla B, Egwaga S, Millington KA, Mann GH, Murray M, Squire SB, Cohen T. A modelling framework to support the selection and implementation of new tuberculosis diagnostic tools [State of the art series. Operational research. Number 8 in the series]. The International Journal Of Tuberculosis And Lung Disease 2011, 15: 996-1004. PMID: 21740663, DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.11.0062.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDiagnostic strategiesHealth systemTB transmission dynamicsDiagnosis of tuberculosisHealth system requirementsDiagnostic toolHealth system componentsPolicy makersNew diagnostic strategiesHealth care infrastructureNovel diagnostic toolPatient outcomesDifferent epidemiologyJoint modelling frameworkModelling frameworkTest characteristicsCare infrastructureTransmission dynamicsRational choiceTuberculosisTechnological innovationStrategy decisionsDifficult decisionsMakersRecent introduction