2023
Changes in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022
Klaassen F, Chitwood M, Cohen T, Pitzer V, Russi M, Swartwood N, Salomon J, Menzies N. Changes in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2023, 77: 355-361. PMID: 37074868, PMCID: PMC10425195, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciad210.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere diseasePopulation immunityOmicron infectionOmicron variantUS populationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SARS-CoV-2 infectionRespiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variantRestoration of immunitySyndrome coronavirus 2Bayesian evidence synthesis modelInfection-acquired immunityEvidence synthesis modelSARS-CoV-2Prior immunological exposureCoronavirus 2Additional infectionsImmunological exposureInfectionDiseaseImmunityVaccinationUnited States
2022
Reconstructing the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over 2020 for US states and counties: Results of a Bayesian evidence synthesis model
Chitwood MH, Russi M, Gunasekera K, Havumaki J, Klaassen F, Pitzer VE, Salomon JA, Swartwood NA, Warren JL, Weinberger DM, Cohen T, Menzies NA. Reconstructing the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over 2020 for US states and counties: Results of a Bayesian evidence synthesis model. PLOS Computational Biology 2022, 18: e1010465. PMID: 36040963, PMCID: PMC9467347, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010465.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSARS-CoV-2 infectionCOVID-19 casesIncident SARS-CoV-2 infectionCOVID-19 disease burdenSymptomatic COVID-19 casesLocal epidemiological trendsSARS-CoV-2 transmissionBayesian evidence synthesis modelCOVID-19 outcomesEvidence synthesis modelMagnitude of infectionCOVID-19 deathsCumulative incidenceDisease burdenExcess mortalityCase ascertainmentEpidemiological trendsSeroprevalence estimatesUnderlying incidenceUS populationDisease trendsViral transmission dynamicsInfectionEpidemiological driversCOVID-19 epidemicPopulation Immunity to Pre-Omicron and Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants in US States and Counties Through 1 December 2021
Klaassen F, Chitwood MH, Cohen T, Pitzer VE, Russi M, Swartwood NA, Salomon JA, Menzies NA. Population Immunity to Pre-Omicron and Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants in US States and Counties Through 1 December 2021. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2022, 76: e350-e359. PMID: 35717642, PMCID: PMC9214178, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac438.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSARS-CoV-2 infectionSARS-CoV-2Immunological exposureOmicron variantSevere diseaseAcute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infectionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infectionFuture SARS-CoV-2 infectionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variantsUS populationSyndrome coronavirus 2 infectionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccinationCoronavirus 2 infectionPopulation-level immunityPrior immunological exposurePopulation immunityImmune escapeVaccination dataInfectionInfection statusVaccinationUS statesEffective protectionDiseaseImmunity
2021
Evaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study
Kishore N, Taylor AR, Jacob PE, Vembar N, Cohen T, Buckee CO, Menzies NA. Evaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study. The Lancet Digital Health 2021, 4: e27-e36. PMID: 34740555, PMCID: PMC8563007, DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(21)00214-4.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSARS-CoV-2 transmissionPopulation-based studyLaboratory-confirmed casesSARS-CoV-2 pandemicSARS-CoV-2Non-pharmaceutical interventionsCOVID-19 transmissionCOVID-19 casesEpidemiological dataReproduction numberEffective reproduction numberHealth StatisticsEquity of accessEpidemic trajectoriesCOVID-19Public healthTransmission indicatorsPopulation levelContact patternsComparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan
Ng TC, Cheng HY, Chang HH, Liu CC, Yang CC, Jian SW, Liu DP, Cohen T, Lin HH. Comparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan. JAMA Internal Medicine 2021, 181: 913-921. PMID: 33821922, PMCID: PMC8025126, DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1644.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPopulation-based interventionsCOVID-19 casesCOVID-19 controlComparative effectiveness research studyComparative effectiveness studiesEffective public health systemCOVID-19Reproduction numberPublic health professionalsPublic health systemCategories of interventionsStochastic branching process modelCase detectionMAIN OUTCOMESubsequent infectionPresymptomatic stagePrimary casesHealth professionalsEffective reproduction numberEstimated EffectivenessSerial intervalEffectiveness studiesHealth systemContact tracingCOVID-19 containmentThe impact of COVID-19 on TB: a review of the data
McQuaid C, Vassall A, Cohen T, Fiekert K, COVID/TB Modelling Working Group *, White R. The impact of COVID-19 on TB: a review of the data. The International Journal Of Tuberculosis And Lung Disease 2021, 25: 436-446. PMID: 34049605, PMCID: PMC8171247, DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.21.0148.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchThe Impact of Changes in Diagnostic Testing Practices on Estimates of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States
Pitzer VE, Chitwood M, Havumaki J, Menzies NA, Perniciaro S, Warren JL, Weinberger DM, Cohen T. The Impact of Changes in Diagnostic Testing Practices on Estimates of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2021, 190: 1908-1917. PMID: 33831148, PMCID: PMC8083380, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab089.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Diagnostic testingRespiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Reproductive numberPercentage of patientsSyndrome coronavirus 2Coronavirus disease 2019Diagnostic testing practicesFraction of casesCOVID-19 transmissionEffective reproductive numberCoronavirus 2Disease 2019Testing practicesCoronavirus diseaseBasic reproductive numberLevel of interventionEstimates of R0Daily numberTest, trace, and isolate in the UK
Cheng HY, Cohen T, Lin HH. Test, trace, and isolate in the UK. The BMJ 2021, 372: n822. PMID: 33789886, DOI: 10.1136/bmj.n822.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchAdaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Yaesoubi R, Havumaki J, Chitwood MH, Menzies NA, Gonsalves G, Salomon JA, Paltiel AD, Cohen T. Adaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Medical Decision Making 2021, 41: 386-392. PMID: 33504258, PMCID: PMC8084913, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x21990371.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAdaptive policiesClear decision rulesSocial costsEconomic costsPolicy makersPhysical distancing policiesDecision toolPolicyPhysical distancing interventionsDistancing policiesModel-based experimentsDecision rulesReal-time surveillance dataCostCOVID-19 pandemicMakersShorter overall durationMore complex modelsHealth benefitsComplex modelsPandemicCurrent pandemicCOVID-19BenefitsRules
2020
Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020
Weinberger DM, Chen J, Cohen T, Crawford FW, Mostashari F, Olson D, Pitzer VE, Reich NG, Russi M, Simonsen L, Watkins A, Viboud C. Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020. JAMA Internal Medicine 2020, 180: 1336-1344. PMID: 32609310, PMCID: PMC7330834, DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3391.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCOVID-19Excess deathsOfficial COVID-19 deathsCoronavirus disease 2019Entire US populationPublic health impactCOVID-19 diagnostic testsCOVID-19 burdenCOVID-19 deathsCause deathReported deathsMortality burdenObservational studyDisease 2019Influenza activityMAIN OUTCOMEDeath AssociatedWeekly deathsTotal deathsUS deathsMore deathsDeath recordsUS populationHealth StatisticsTest availabilityHousehold studies provide key insights on the transmission of, and susceptibility to, SARS-CoV-2
Pitzer VE, Cohen T. Household studies provide key insights on the transmission of, and susceptibility to, SARS-CoV-2. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2020, 20: 1103-1104. PMID: 32562602, PMCID: PMC7832097, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30514-4.Peer-Reviewed Original Research