2017
A Likelihood Approach for Real-Time Calibration of Stochastic Compartmental Epidemic Models
Zimmer C, Yaesoubi R, Cohen T. A Likelihood Approach for Real-Time Calibration of Stochastic Compartmental Epidemic Models. PLOS Computational Biology 2017, 13: e1005257. PMID: 28095403, PMCID: PMC5240920, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005257.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsParameter estimationStochastic modelLinear noise approximationStochastic transmission-dynamic modelEnsemble Kalman filter methodReal-time parameter estimationKey epidemic parametersParticle filtering methodInfectious individualsStochastic systemsCompartmental epidemic modelLikelihood approximationMultiple shootingNoise approximationBenchmark methodsEpidemic modelPoisson observationsKalman filter methodUnobserved numberAccurate estimatesEpidemic parametersLikelihood approachFiltering methodDynamic modelApproximation
2010
The Impact of Realistic Age Structure in Simple Models of Tuberculosis Transmission
Brooks-Pollock E, Cohen T, Murray M. The Impact of Realistic Age Structure in Simple Models of Tuberculosis Transmission. PLOS ONE 2010, 5: e8479. PMID: 20062531, PMCID: PMC2797602, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008479.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSimple modelReproductive ratioRealistic age structureSteady-state dynamicsBasic reproductive ratioMathematical descriptionMathematical modelParameter estimationRepresentative of modelsAnalytic argumentsInterpretation of modelsTuberculosis transmissionModelling assumptionsTB modelControl interventionsTB natural historyChronic infectious diseaseDisease dynamicsPublic health interventionsRealistic distributionExponential lifetimesAsymptomatic latent infectionIndividual-based modelPrevalence of infectionActive disease