2025
The Cost-Effectiveness of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide for Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis and Obesity.
Betensky D, Smith K, Katz J, Yang C, Hunter D, Collins J, Feldman C, Messier S, Kim J, Selzer F, Paltiel A, Losina E. The Cost-Effectiveness of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide for Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis and Obesity. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2025 PMID: 40953447, DOI: 10.7326/annals-24-03609.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchQuality-adjusted life yearsBody mass indexIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioKnee osteoarthritisWestern Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain scorePain reductionBaseline body mass indexQuality-adjusted life year thresholdsHealth benefitsMicrosimulation modelWeight loss strategiesCost-effectiveMean body mass indexUsual careHealth policyCost-effectiveness thresholdOsteoarthritis Policy ModelCost-effectiveness ratioGlucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonistsPeptide-1 receptor agonistsLife yearsBase-case cohortMass indexLoss strategiesMedical costsWe must fill the void in global HIV care without PEPFAR
Paltiel A, Gandhi A, Neilan A, Bekker L. We must fill the void in global HIV care without PEPFAR. The BMJ 2025, 390: r1436. PMID: 40639838, DOI: 10.1136/bmj.r1436.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCost-effective pricing of long-acting injectable HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: a model-based analysis
Jin E, Ahmed A, Bekker L, Rousseau E, Dugdale C, Flanagan C, Wallace M, Freedberg K, Orrell C, Reddy K, Paltiel A, Ciaranello A, Neilan A. Cost-effective pricing of long-acting injectable HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: a model-based analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2025, 13: e1230-e1239. PMID: 40441175, PMCID: PMC12223965, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(25)00119-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHIV pre-exposure prophylaxisPre-exposure prophylaxisLife yearsIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioTDF-FTCCAB-LAAdolescent girlsYoung womenHIV-related careHealth-care sector perspectiveDaily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarateIncrease life-yearsDaily oral TDF-FTCOral tenofovir disoproxil fumaratePrEP programmesCumulative HIV-transmissionHIV incidencePrEP persistenceTenofovir disoproxil fumarateCost-effectiveness ratioHIV transmissionCost-effectiveModel-projected outcomesSouth AfricaPrEP drugsCost-effectiveness analysis of alternative infant and neonatal rotavirus vaccination schedules in Malawi
Wenger C, Asare E, Kwon J, Li X, Mwinjiwa E, Chinkhumba J, Jere K, Hungerford D, Cunliffe N, Paltiel A, Pitzer V. Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative infant and neonatal rotavirus vaccination schedules in Malawi. PLOS Global Public Health 2025, 5: e0004341. PMID: 40209158, PMCID: PMC11984971, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004341.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchDose of RotarixNeonatal vaccinationThird doseDisability-adjusted life yearsRotavirus vaccination strategiesVaccination strategiesVaccination scheduleRV3-BB vaccineRotavirus vaccine scheduleModerate-to-severeCurrent rotavirus vaccinesProbabilistic sensitivity analysesRV3-BBPrevent rotavirusRotavirus casesRotavirus vaccineWTP thresholdAlternate infantsVaccine impactSevere diarrheaWeeks of ageRotarixVaccine effectivenessCost-effectiveness analysisCost-effectivePotential Clinical and Economic Impacts of Cutbacks in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Program in South Africa : A Modeling Analysis.
Gandhi A, Bekker L, Paltiel A, Hyle E, Ciaranello A, Pillay Y, Freedberg K, Neilan A. Potential Clinical and Economic Impacts of Cutbacks in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Program in South Africa : A Modeling Analysis. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2025, 178: 457-467. PMID: 39932732, PMCID: PMC11996594, DOI: 10.7326/annals-24-01104.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPresident's Emergency PlanPEPFAR fundingHIV diagnosis ratesClinical HIV outcomesHIV care continuumSouth African adultsNational Institutes of HealthCare continuumHIV outcomesHIV programsAIDS ReliefHIV prevalenceInstitutes of HealthPrimary preventionTreatment engagementEmergency planningPEPFARLife yearsPWHAfrican adultsHIV budgetLife expectancyLong-term detrimental effectsDiagnosis rateProgrammatic implications379. Potential clinical and economic impact of cutbacks in the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Program in South Africa: a modelling analysis
Gandhi A, Bekker L, Paltiel A, Hyle E, Ciaranello A, Pillay Y, Freedberg K, Neilan A. 379. Potential clinical and economic impact of cutbacks in the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Program in South Africa: a modelling analysis. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2025, 12: ofae631.010. PMCID: PMC11778235, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofae631.010.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchHIV care cascadeHIV-related deathsCost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS ComplicationsCare cascadeHIV infectionPEPFAR fundingHIV care continuum outcomesCare continuum outcomesHIV epidemic controlLife expectancyNew HIV infectionsGlobal health initiativesModified societal perspectiveLifetime costsSouth African adultsHealth initiativesHIV diagnosisHIV programsHIV statusPrimary preventionAIDS complicationsPWHPEPFARHIV budgetLife years
2024
Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment for Pregnant People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa: A Modeling Analysis of Clinical Benefits and Risks
Rosen L, Thielking A, Dugdale C, Montepiedra G, Kalk E, Kim S, LaCourse S, Mathad J, Freedberg K, Horsburgh C, Paltiel A, Wood R, Ciaranello A, Reddy K. Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment for Pregnant People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa: A Modeling Analysis of Clinical Benefits and Risks. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2024, ciae508. PMID: 39544107, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae508.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchAdverse pregnancy outcomesHuman immunodeficiency virusRisk of stillbirthFetal/infant deathImmunodeficiency virusHigher risk of LBWMaternal CD4 cell countCD4 cell countMonths of isoniazidRisk of LBWPregnant peopleHigher-risk scenarioTuberculosis preventive treatmentIsoniazid-rifapentineAntiretroviral therapyPregnancy outcomesClinical benefitPrimary outcomeCombined deathPreventive treatmentCell countHigh riskStillbirthPregnancyInternational guidelinesIntegrating testing volume into bandit algorithms for infectious disease surveillance
Warren J, Prunas O, Paltiel A, Thornhill T, Gonsalves G. Integrating testing volume into bandit algorithms for infectious disease surveillance. Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics In Society) 2024, qnae090. DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae090.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPublic Health Impact of FDA’s Request for Additional Safety Data on Cytisine for Tobacco Cessation
Reddy K, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Rigotti N. Public Health Impact of FDA’s Request for Additional Safety Data on Cytisine for Tobacco Cessation. JAMA Health Forum 2024, 5: e242647. PMID: 39177985, PMCID: PMC11344233, DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.2647.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPublic health benefitsCessation medicationsSmoking cessationStop smokingLife yearsLong-term abstinenceCivilian noninstitutionalized adultsTobacco cessation treatmentTobacco cessation medicationsPotential public health benefitsPopulation-level life expectancyLife expectancySmoking cessation medicationsLife expectancy gainsHealth benefitsPotential public health impactPublic health impactSmoking cessation aidTobacco cessationNoninstitutionalized adultsNoninstitutionalized populationMain OutcomesCessation treatmentCessation aidsYear of availabilityTobacco smoking, smoking cessation and life expectancy among people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a simulation modelling study
Thielking A, Fitzmaurice K, Sewpaul R, Chrysanthopoulou S, Dike L, Levy D, Rigotti N, Siedner M, Wood R, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Hyle E, Reddy K. Tobacco smoking, smoking cessation and life expectancy among people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a simulation modelling study. Journal Of The International AIDS Society 2024, 27: e26315. PMID: 38924347, PMCID: PMC11197963, DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26315.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMortality hazard ratioSmoking cessationLife yearsNever smoking statusLife expectancyVirologically suppressed PWHSmoking statusTobacco smokeIntegrate tobacco cessation interventionsMortality riskHazard ratioTobacco cessation interventionsSmoking cessation increasesTobacco-related illnessesImpact of tobacco smokingAntiretroviral therapyMortality risk increaseProportion of deathsChronic respiratory conditionsImpact of smokingCohort of PWHVirological non-suppressionCessation interventionsVirologic suppressionHIV careProjecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee
Borre E, Ahonkhai A, Chi K, Osman A, Thayer K, Person A, Weddle A, Flanagan C, Pettit A, Closs D, Cotton M, Agwu A, Cespedes M, Ciaranello A, Gonsalves G, Hyle E, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Neilan A. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2024, 79: 1458-1467. PMID: 38913762, PMCID: PMC11650892, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae243.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCenters for Disease Control and PreventionIncrease HIV testingHuman immunodeficiency virus testingHuman immunodeficiency virusPriority populationsPrEP provisionCare linkageHIV testingPrevention fundingSurvivors of sex traffickingPregnant peopleTransgender womenLife yearsCondom useHIV prevention fundsUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionBaseline condom useControl and PreventionReduced condom useHuman immunodeficiency virus transmissionHeterosexual Black womenPreexposure prophylaxisHIV transmissionBlack womenCost‐Effectiveness of Community‐Based Diet and Exercise for Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis and Obesity or Overweight
Kopp P, Yang C, Yang H, Katz J, Paltiel A, Hunter D, Callahan L, Mihalko S, Newman J, DeVita P, Loeser R, Miller G, Messier S, Losina E. Cost‐Effectiveness of Community‐Based Diet and Exercise for Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis and Obesity or Overweight. Arthritis Care & Research 2024, 76: 1018-1027. PMID: 38450873, DOI: 10.1002/acr.25323.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchBody mass indexUsual careQuality-adjusted life yearsHealth educationIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioKnee osteoarthritisKnee OAGroup-based health educationWestern Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain scoreLifetime costsOA careE programCost-effectiveIncremental cost-effectivenessFunctional limitationsIncreased lifetime costsOsteoarthritis Policy ModelCost-effectiveness ratioLife yearsMass indexPain reductionSocietal perspectiveCohort characteristicsKneeExerciseComparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States
Park H, Gonsalves G, Tan S, Kelly J, Rutherford G, Wachter R, Schechter R, Paltiel A, Lo N. Comparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States. Nature Communications 2024, 15: 1883. PMID: 38448400, PMCID: PMC10917753, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45549-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere COVID-19Risk of severe COVID-19COVID-19 booster vaccinationBooster vaccinationHigh-risk populationAbsolute annual riskWaning of protectionImmunocompromised populationsFrequent boostingOlder age groupsAnnual boosterImmune evasionImmunocompromised personsPublic health needsPublic health guidanceRisk groupsFrequent boostersImmune statusRisk factorsFrequency of booster vaccinationHealth needsHealth guidanceCompare frequenciesAge groupsVaccine
2023
Optimizing COVID-19 testing strategies on college campuses: Evaluation of the health and economic costs
Johnson K, Pasco R, Woody S, Lachmann M, Johnson-Leon M, Bhavnani D, Klima J, Paltiel A, Fox S, Meyers L. Optimizing COVID-19 testing strategies on college campuses: Evaluation of the health and economic costs. PLOS Computational Biology 2023, 19: e1011715. PMID: 38134223, PMCID: PMC10773932, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011715.Peer-Reviewed Original Research965. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee
Borre E, Ahonkhai A, Chi K, Osman A, Thayer K, Person A, Weddle A, Flanagan C, Pettit A, Closs D, Cotton M, Agwu A, Cespedes M, Ciaranello A, Gonsalves G, Hyle E, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Neilan A. 965. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2023, 10: ofad500.2460. PMCID: PMC10678140, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad500.2460.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchHIV testingHIV prevention fundingHIV transmissionDeath avertedTransgender womenPregnant peopleHIV careRisk groupsCondom usePrevention fundingHIV testing ratesPre-exposure prophylaxisHIV testing frequencyPriority risk groupBlack womenHeterosexual Black womenNumber of peoplePrEP provisionVirologic suppressionIncident HIVUndiagnosed HIVHIV deathsPrEP usePotential ClinicalClinical impactDaily Oral HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: Cost-saving at Generic Drug Price
Amick A, Eskibozkurt G, Hosek S, Flanagan C, Landovitz R, Jin E, Wilson C, Freedberg K, Weinstein M, Kazemian P, Paltiel A, Ciaranello A, Neilan A. Daily Oral HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: Cost-saving at Generic Drug Price. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2023, 78: 402-410. PMID: 37823865, PMCID: PMC10874274, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciad566.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPre-exposure prophylaxisHIV incidenceRisk of HIVOral PrEPAnnual screeningHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxisOral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxisHIV pre-exposure prophylaxisIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioHIV RNA levelsYoung menCost-effectiveness ratioAnnual HIVHigher discontinuationPrEP retentionAntiretroviral therapyDrug pricesHIV careLow adherenceLifetime horizonNew infectionsHIVIncidencePrEPRNA levelsThe Value-of-Information and Value-of-Implementation from Clinical Trials of Diagnostic Tests for HIV-Associated Tuberculosis: A Modeling Analysis
Pei P, Fitzmaurice K, Le M, Panella C, Jones M, Pandya A, Horsburgh C, Freedberg K, Weinstein M, Paltiel A, Reddy K. The Value-of-Information and Value-of-Implementation from Clinical Trials of Diagnostic Tests for HIV-Associated Tuberculosis: A Modeling Analysis. MDM Policy & Practice 2023, 8: 23814683231198873. PMID: 37743931, PMCID: PMC10517616, DOI: 10.1177/23814683231198873.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchIncremental net monetary benefitOptimal decisionsOptimal strategyNet monetary benefitDecision makers' willingnessHealth economic standpointSputum XpertClinical trialsEconomic outcomesHigh VOTMonetary benefitsNew clinical trial evidenceDiagnostic testsHIV-Associated TuberculosisEconomic standpointClinical trial evidenceVOI analysisPublic health decision makingValue of trialsDownstream health outcomesSouth AfricaEvaluation of trialsHealth decision makingWillingnessDecisionsTobacco Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and Life Expectancy Among People With HIV in South Africa
Thielking A, Fitzmaurice K, Sewpaul R, Dike L, Freedberg K, Hyle E, Levy D, Paltiel A, Rigotti N, Siedner M, Reddy K. Tobacco Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and Life Expectancy Among People With HIV in South Africa. 2023, a6737-a6737. DOI: 10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2023.207.1_meetingabstracts.a6737.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid conjugate vaccines in an outbreak setting: a modeling study
Phillips M, Antillon M, Bilcke J, Bar-Zeev N, Limani F, Debellut F, Pecenka C, Neuzil K, Gordon M, Thindwa D, Paltiel A, Yaesoubi R, Pitzer V. Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid conjugate vaccines in an outbreak setting: a modeling study. BMC Infectious Diseases 2023, 23: 143. PMID: 36890448, PMCID: PMC9993384, DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08105-2.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTyphoid Conjugate VaccineRoutine vaccinationReactive vaccinationVaccination strategiesOutbreak settingsMultidrug-resistant Salmonella typhiQueen Elizabeth Central HospitalTyphoid fever epidemicYears of ageMonths of ageCost-effectiveness analysisWorld Health OrganizationConjugate vaccineCentral HospitalRoutine immunizationVaccine deploymentPreventive vaccinationVaccinationTyphoid feverCost-effective strategyAge 15Health OrganizationFever epidemicAntimicrobial resistanceOutbreak definitionsIncreased HIV Transmissions With Reduced Insurance Coverage for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis: Potential Consequences of Braidwood Management v. Becerra
Paltiel A, Ahmed A, Jin E, McNamara M, Freedberg K, Neilan A, Gonsalves G. Increased HIV Transmissions With Reduced Insurance Coverage for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis: Potential Consequences of Braidwood Management v. Becerra. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2023, 10: ofad139. PMID: 37008565, PMCID: PMC10061554, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad139.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
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