2022
Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study
Savinkina A, Bilinski A, Fitzpatrick M, Paltiel AD, Rizvi Z, Salomon J, Thornhill T, Gonsalves G. Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study. BMJ Open 2022, 12: e061752. PMID: 36100306, PMCID: PMC9471205, DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061752.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLow-income countriesIncome countriesDeath avertedHigh-income nationsStatistical lifeAvertable deathsIncome nationsCOVID-19 deathsReasonable investmentHigh costKey inputCountriesParameter estimatesAvertedCostSensitivity analysisUniversal vaccinationGlobal vaccinationMRNA COVID-19 vaccinationNationsInvestmentPrimary vaccine seriesLow vaccine effectivenessCOVID-19 vaccinationPublic dataPopulation-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing—A Cost-effectiveness Analysis
Savinkina A, Paltiel A, Ross J, Gonsalves G. Population-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing—A Cost-effectiveness Analysis. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2022, 9: ofac637. PMID: 36589482, PMCID: PMC9792084, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofac637.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCost-effectiveness analysisTrade-offs implicitSevere diseaseDecision analytic modelAllocation decisionsPay thresholdsPolicy strategiesUnvaccinated patientsVaccination statusHigh riskTreatment effectivenessHigh-risk individualsAllocation strategyPopulation-level strategiesWillingnessFurther priorityDrug costsSensitivity analysisCostRitonavir treatmentUnvaccinated personsVaccinated adultsPatient populationClinical trialsLower risk
2024
Integrating testing volume into bandit algorithms for infectious disease surveillance
Warren J, Prunas O, Paltiel A, Thornhill T, Gonsalves G. Integrating testing volume into bandit algorithms for infectious disease surveillance. Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics In Society) 2024, qnae090. DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae090.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchProjecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee
Borre E, Ahonkhai A, Chi K, Osman A, Thayer K, Person A, Weddle A, Flanagan C, Pettit A, Closs D, Cotton M, Agwu A, Cespedes M, Ciaranello A, Gonsalves G, Hyle E, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Neilan A. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2024, ciae243. PMID: 38913762, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae243.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCenters for Disease Control and PreventionIncrease HIV testingHuman immunodeficiency virus testingHuman immunodeficiency virusPriority populationsPrEP provisionCare linkageHIV testingPrevention fundingSurvivors of sex traffickingPregnant peopleTransgender womenLife yearsCondom useHIV prevention fundsUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionBaseline condom useControl and PreventionReduced condom useHuman immunodeficiency virus transmissionHeterosexual Black womenPreexposure prophylaxisHIV transmissionBlack womenComparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States
Park H, Gonsalves G, Tan S, Kelly J, Rutherford G, Wachter R, Schechter R, Paltiel A, Lo N. Comparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States. Nature Communications 2024, 15: 1883. PMID: 38448400, PMCID: PMC10917753, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45549-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere COVID-19Risk of severe COVID-19COVID-19 booster vaccinationBooster vaccinationHigh-risk populationAbsolute annual riskWaning of protectionImmunocompromised populationsFrequent boostingOlder age groupsAnnual boosterImmune evasionImmunocompromised personsPublic health needsPublic health guidanceRisk groupsFrequent boostersImmune statusRisk factorsFrequency of booster vaccinationHealth needsHealth guidanceCompare frequenciesAge groupsVaccine
2023
965. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee
Borre E, Ahonkhai A, Chi K, Osman A, Thayer K, Person A, Weddle A, Flanagan C, Pettit A, Closs D, Cotton M, Agwu A, Cespedes M, Ciaranello A, Gonsalves G, Hyle E, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Neilan A. 965. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2023, 10: ofad500.2460. PMCID: PMC10678140, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad500.2460.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchHIV testingHIV prevention fundingHIV transmissionDeath avertedTransgender womenPregnant peopleHIV careRisk groupsCondom usePrevention fundingHIV testing ratesPre-exposure prophylaxisHIV testing frequencyPriority risk groupBlack womenHeterosexual Black womenNumber of peoplePrEP provisionVirologic suppressionIncident HIVUndiagnosed HIVHIV deathsPrEP usePotential ClinicalClinical impactIncreased HIV Transmissions With Reduced Insurance Coverage for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis: Potential Consequences of Braidwood Management v. Becerra
Paltiel A, Ahmed A, Jin E, McNamara M, Freedberg K, Neilan A, Gonsalves G. Increased HIV Transmissions With Reduced Insurance Coverage for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis: Potential Consequences of Braidwood Management v. Becerra. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2023, 10: ofad139. PMID: 37008565, PMCID: PMC10061554, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad139.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPatterns of Infectious Disease Associated With Injection Drug Use in Massachusetts
Gonsalves G, Paltiel A, Thornhill T, DeMaria A, Cranston K, Klevens R, Warren J. Patterns of Infectious Disease Associated With Injection Drug Use in Massachusetts. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2023, 76: 2134-2139. PMID: 36757712, PMCID: PMC10273381, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciad073.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSoft tissue infectionsHuman immunodeficiency virusHepatitis C virusInjection drug useHCV casesInfective endocarditisHIV casesDrug useSubstance use disordersLogistic regression modelsClinical sequalaeSSTI casesPublic health crisisTissue infectionsImmunodeficiency virusDisease AssociatedHIV outbreakAbscess incisionC virusUse disordersInfectious diseasesInfectionMultiple outbreaksMedical proceduresSuch associationsPlanning for Mpox on a College Campus: A Model-Based Decision-Support Tool.
Savinkina A, Chitwood M, Kwon J, Pitzer V, Gonsalves G, Paltiel A. Planning for Mpox on a College Campus: A Model-Based Decision-Support Tool. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2023, 176: 340-347. PMID: 36716454, PMCID: PMC10338074, DOI: 10.7326/m22-2734.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSustained transmissionNational InstituteLow-risk groupHigh-risk populationPopulation of MSMHealth-National InstituteResidential college campusSymptomatic casesHypothetical cohortCongregate settingsStudy populationPreemptive vaccinationReactive vaccinationInfectious diseasesVaccinationDrug abuseBasic reproductive numberFuture outbreaksFrequent physical contactMSMReproductive numberOutbreakDaysMenTimely detection
2021
Adventures in COVID-19 Policy Modeling: Education Edition
Gonsalves GS, Salomon JA, Thornhill T, Paltiel AD. Adventures in COVID-19 Policy Modeling: Education Edition. Current HIV/AIDS Reports 2021, 19: 94-100. PMID: 34826066, PMCID: PMC8617548, DOI: 10.1007/s11904-021-00592-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMaximizing the Efficiency of Active Case Finding for SARS-CoV-2 Using Bandit Algorithms
Gonsalves GS, Copple JT, Paltiel AD, Fenichel EP, Bayham J, Abraham M, Kline D, Malloy S, Rayo MF, Zhang N, Faulkner D, Morey DA, Wu F, Thornhill T, Iloglu S, Warren JL. Maximizing the Efficiency of Active Case Finding for SARS-CoV-2 Using Bandit Algorithms. Medical Decision Making 2021, 41: 970-977. PMID: 34120510, PMCID: PMC8484027, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x211021603.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsBandit algorithmsMobility dataThompson sampling algorithmWeb appFunctional prototypeTesting resourcesSequential decisionAlgorithmPartial informationSampling algorithmClassic problemDecision scienceSpatial correlationAllocationPoint distanceInformationResourcesDeploymentAppsDecisionsTradeoffHaystackPrototypeObjectsDataThe Dynamics of Infectious Diseases Associated With Injection Drug Use in Lawrence and Lowell, Massachusetts
Gonsalves GS, Paltiel A, Thornhill T, Iloglu S, DeMaria A, Cranston K, Klevens R, Walensky RP, Warren JL. The Dynamics of Infectious Diseases Associated With Injection Drug Use in Lawrence and Lowell, Massachusetts. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2021, 8: ofab128. PMID: 34189158, PMCID: PMC8231383, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab128.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchInjection drug useDrug useHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaksInfectious diseasesSoft tissue infectionsCases of skinPublic health departmentsPoisson regression modelsInfectious complicationsTissue infectionsHIV casesDrainage proceduresFatal overdosesHealth departmentsComplicationsEarly interventionMonthsPotential outbreaksVirus outbreakSentinel SystemDiseaseRegression modelsOutbreakHIVOverdosesAdaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Yaesoubi R, Havumaki J, Chitwood MH, Menzies NA, Gonsalves G, Salomon JA, Paltiel AD, Cohen T. Adaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Medical Decision Making 2021, 41: 386-392. PMID: 33504258, PMCID: PMC8084913, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x21990371.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAdaptive policiesClear decision rulesSocial costsEconomic costsPolicy makersPhysical distancing policiesDecision toolPolicyPhysical distancing interventionsDistancing policiesModel-based experimentsDecision rulesReal-time surveillance dataCostCOVID-19 pandemicMakersShorter overall durationMore complex modelsHealth benefitsComplex modelsPandemicCurrent pandemicCOVID-19BenefitsRules
2018
Bayesian adaptive algorithms for locating HIV mobile testing services
Gonsalves GS, Copple JT, Johnson T, Paltiel AD, Warren JL. Bayesian adaptive algorithms for locating HIV mobile testing services. BMC Medicine 2018, 16: 155. PMID: 30173667, PMCID: PMC6120098, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-018-1129-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsThompson SamplingSearch algorithmMobile testing serviceTesting activitiesSpatial correlationTesting resourcesAlgorithmBayesian adaptive algorithmPrior workHigh spatial correlationWeighting schemeAdaptive algorithmSearch strategySimulation modelPractical valueHierarchical modelServicesPerfect informationMobile HIV testing servicesInformationHIV testing resources
2017
Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid.
Walensky RP, Borre ED, Bekker LG, Hyle EP, Gonsalves GS, Wood R, Eholié SP, Weinstein MC, Anglaret X, Freedberg KA, Paltiel AD. Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2017, 167: 618-629. PMID: 28847013, PMCID: PMC5675810, DOI: 10.7326/m17-1358.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsYears of lifeHIV transmissionHIV programsFuture incident casesSecond-line ARTHIV care continuumViral load monitoringAdverse clinical consequencesResource-limited nationsBase-case analysisCurrent standardHIV deathsIncident casesCôte d'IvoireCare continuumART efficacyClinical consequencesHIV detectionLess HarmHIVSocietal perspectiveProductivity costsNational InstituteDeathYearsA Flow-Based Model of the HIV Care Continuum in the United States
Gonsalves GS, Paltiel AD, Cleary PD, Gill MJ, Kitahata MM, Rebeiro PF, Silverberg MJ, Horberg M, Abraham AG, Althoff KN, Moore R, Bosch RJ, Tang T, Hall HI, Kaplan EH. A Flow-Based Model of the HIV Care Continuum in the United States. JAIDS Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2017, 75: 548-553. PMID: 28471841, PMCID: PMC5533168, DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000001429.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsViral suppressionAntiretroviral therapyHIV careNorth American AIDS Cohort CollaborationProportion of HIVHIV care continuumCohort CollaborationHIV diagnosisAntiretroviral treatmentVirological dataCare continuumFlow of patientsDisease controlPatientsCareAverage timeHIVTherapyLaboratory resultsMonthsSuppressionYearsDiagnosisIndividualsPreventionAn Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services
Gonsalves GS, Crawford FW, Cleary PD, Kaplan EH, Paltiel AD. An Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services. Medical Decision Making 2017, 38: 262-272. PMID: 28699382, PMCID: PMC5748375, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x17716431.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMobile HIV testingHIV testingMobile HIV testing servicesHIV testing resourcesUndetected HIV infectionHIV testing servicesCase detection ratePublic health agenciesUndiagnosed HIVHIV infectionHIV testHIV prevalenceUnknown prevalenceMore casesHealth agenciesDefinitions of hotspotsPrevalence informationTesting servicesPrevalenceSelection biasDetection rateSearch strategyHIV
2015
Reducing Sexual Violence by Increasing the Supply of Toilets in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Mathematical Model
Gonsalves GS, Kaplan EH, Paltiel AD. Reducing Sexual Violence by Increasing the Supply of Toilets in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Mathematical Model. PLOS ONE 2015, 10: e0122244. PMID: 25923105, PMCID: PMC4414450, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122244.Peer-Reviewed Original Research