2022
Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study
Savinkina A, Bilinski A, Fitzpatrick M, Paltiel AD, Rizvi Z, Salomon J, Thornhill T, Gonsalves G. Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study. BMJ Open 2022, 12: e061752. PMID: 36100306, PMCID: PMC9471205, DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061752.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLow-income countriesIncome countriesDeath avertedHigh-income nationsStatistical lifeAvertable deathsIncome nationsCOVID-19 deathsReasonable investmentHigh costKey inputCountriesParameter estimatesAvertedCostSensitivity analysisUniversal vaccinationGlobal vaccinationMRNA COVID-19 vaccinationNationsInvestmentPrimary vaccine seriesLow vaccine effectivenessCOVID-19 vaccinationPublic dataPopulation-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing—A Cost-effectiveness Analysis
Savinkina A, Paltiel A, Ross J, Gonsalves G. Population-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing—A Cost-effectiveness Analysis. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2022, 9: ofac637. PMID: 36589482, PMCID: PMC9792084, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofac637.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCost-effectiveness analysisTrade-offs implicitSevere diseaseDecision analytic modelAllocation decisionsPay thresholdsPolicy strategiesUnvaccinated patientsVaccination statusHigh riskTreatment effectivenessHigh-risk individualsAllocation strategyPopulation-level strategiesWillingnessFurther priorityDrug costsSensitivity analysisCostRitonavir treatmentUnvaccinated personsVaccinated adultsPatient populationClinical trialsLower risk
2024
Modelling vaccination approaches for mpox containment and mitigation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Savinkina A, Kindrachuk J, Bogoch I, Rimoin A, Hoff N, Shaw S, Pitzer V, Mbala-Kingebeni P, Gonsalves G. Modelling vaccination approaches for mpox containment and mitigation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Lancet Global Health 2024, 12: e1936-e1944. PMID: 39393385, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00384-x.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2023
Mortality, incarceration and cost implications of fentanyl felonization laws: A modeling study
Savinkina A, Jurecka C, Gonsalves G, Barocas J. Mortality, incarceration and cost implications of fentanyl felonization laws: A modeling study. International Journal Of Drug Policy 2023, 121: 104175. PMID: 37729682, PMCID: PMC10840895, DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.104175.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPopulation-Level Health Effects of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness Who Inject Drugs in US Cities
Barocas J, Nall S, Axelrath S, Pladsen C, Boyer A, Kral A, Meehan A, Savinkina A, Peery D, Bien M, Agnew-Brune C, Goldshear J, Chiang J, Linas B, Gonsalves G, Bluthenthal R, Mosites E, Wortley P, Todd J, Melton D, Flynn C, German D, Klevens M, Doherty R, O'Cleirigh C, Jimenez A, Clyde T, Poe J, Vaaler M, Deng J, Al-Tayyib A, Shodell D, Higgins E, Griffin V, Sanger C, Khuwaja S, Lopez Z, Padgett P, Kwa Sey E, Ma Y, Santacruz H, Brantley M, Mathews C, Marr J, Spencer E, Nixon W, Forrest D, Anderson B, Tate A, Abrego M, Robinson W, Barak N, Beckford J, Braunstein S, Rivera A, Carrillo S, Ibrahim A, Wogayehu A, Moraga L, Brady K, Shinefeld J, Nnumolu C, Menza T, Orellana E, Bhattari A, Flynn A, Chambers O, Ramos M, McFarland W, Lin J, Miller D, Miranda De Leon S, Rolon-Colon Y, Martinez M, Jaenicke T, Glick S, Kienzle J, Smith B, Reid T, Opoku J, Kuo I, Adams M, Baugher A, Broz D, Burnett J, Chambers S, Chapin-Bardales J, Denning P, Finlayson T, Handanagic S, Hickey T, Kanny D, Lee K, Lewis R, Morris E, Olansky E, Robbins T, Sionean C, Smith A, Teplinskaya A, Trujillo K, Wejnert C, Whiteman A, Xia M. Population-Level Health Effects of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness Who Inject Drugs in US Cities. JAMA 2023, 329: 1478-1486. PMID: 37036716, PMCID: PMC10087093, DOI: 10.1001/jama.2023.4800.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNational HIV Behavioral Surveillance SystemInitiation of medicationInjection-related infectionsOpioid use disorderUse disordersHealth effectsInjection drug useLong-term health effectsDrug-related morbidityPopulation attributable fractionBehavioral Surveillance SystemSubstance use disordersMAIN OUTCOMEOverdose deathsRepresentative cohortAdditional deathsOverdose mortalityHealth outcomesDrug useNatural historyDisease controlMortalityDisorder outcomesDrugsHealth implicationsPlanning for Mpox on a College Campus: A Model-Based Decision-Support Tool.
Savinkina A, Chitwood M, Kwon J, Pitzer V, Gonsalves G, Paltiel A. Planning for Mpox on a College Campus: A Model-Based Decision-Support Tool. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2023, 176: 340-347. PMID: 36716454, PMCID: PMC10338074, DOI: 10.7326/m22-2734.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSustained transmissionNational InstituteLow-risk groupHigh-risk populationPopulation of MSMHealth-National InstituteResidential college campusSymptomatic casesHypothetical cohortCongregate settingsStudy populationPreemptive vaccinationReactive vaccinationInfectious diseasesVaccinationDrug abuseBasic reproductive numberFuture outbreaksFrequent physical contactMSMReproductive numberOutbreakDaysMenTimely detectionEstimated Testing, Tracing, and Vaccination Targets for Containment of the US Mpox Outbreak
Chitwood M, Kwon J, Savinkina A, Walker J, Bilinski A, Gonsalves G. Estimated Testing, Tracing, and Vaccination Targets for Containment of the US Mpox Outbreak. JAMA Network Open 2023, 6: e2250984. PMID: 36637825, PMCID: PMC9857202, DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.50984.Peer-Reviewed Original Research