Ilyushin (IL-76) Flying over RSF-Controlled Areas Southeast and East of El-Fasher
Yale HRL identified an aircraft in the air assessed to be an Ilyushin (IL-76) flying east over RSF territory approximately 1.7 km southeast and then approximately 7.5 km east of El-Fasher on the morning of 11 June 2024 (local time). The aircraft was visible in sequential satellite imagery taken within approximately one minute of each other on 11 June. The IL-76, captured in satellite imagery, is assessed to have flown approximately 12 kilometers to the northeast of its location in the previous image taken approximately one minute before. Yale HRL has not yet identified the flight number but is continuing to investigate this aircraft.
The origin and identification of this IL-76 are unknown at this time. The Ilyushin (IL-76) (Candid) is a versatile cargo plane used for multipurpose delivery that can include resupply of heavy munitions, artillery, light-armored vehicles, and refueling to remote areas in air drops. Many militaries use the IL-76 as a tactical airlifter for material, vehicles, and personnel to support active combat operations.
The United Nations’ January 2024 Panel of Experts report provides credible information that “several times per week, weapons and ammunition shipments were unloaded from cargo planes arriving at Amdjarass airport, then loaded on trucks” as part of the alleged resupply from the UAE to the RSF. The Panel of Experts reports that “various flight-tracking experts have observed a heavy rotation of cargo planes coming from Abu Dhabi International Airport to Amdjarass airport in eastern Chad, with stops in regional countries such as Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda” and media reports claimed that “the aircraft were transporting weapons, ammunition, and medical equipment for RSF.” The Panel of Experts report does not provide specific identification of the specific cargo aircraft used for these transports.
Open source analysts have identified multiple IL-76 flights by airlines known to be used by the UAE and with an origin points in the UAE, midpoint stops in Nairobi, Ethiopia, or Entebbe, Uganda, and final destinations in N’Djamena or Amdjarass in Chad. Since the United Nations’ Panel of Experts report, there is considerable open source reporting including ground photos of IL-76 aircraft present at the Amdjarass airport in Chad. These flights have occurred on multiple occasions throughout May and June 2024.
Recent flights that corroborate the use of IL-76’s include: Skyline Airlines 6 June 2024 (SLF4942)’s daily trip between Mombassa and an unknown location, potentially the Central African Republic or Chad; a New Way Cargo Airlines IL-76 flight with the most recent activity heading from Saudi Arabia to the UAE on 12 June 2024, and a MAK KG Airlines IL-76 flight operated as a UN Humanitarian Air Service tracked toward Entebbe. Some of these flights are known to turn off signal receivers. Yale HRL does not have information on the signal receivers turned off for this flight over El-Fasher.
While SAF has used IL-76’s in the past there is no indication that SAF is currently using these planes for resupply to El-Fasher. Images and videos of past SAF air resupply are using aircraft that are not consistent with an IL-76. SAF has not been seen using IL-76 in recent months and there is no indication of SAF re-supply by air on 11 June 2024.
Members of the UN Security Council must request further information from the UAE about whether they are re-supplying RSF in the El-Fasher theater of operations, the report says.
Displacement
Civilians appear to be fleeing from RSF and damage within El-Fasher from El-Fasher city itself. Yale HRL corroborates significant displacement within and outside El-Fasher, North Darfur. Yale HRL has assessed a sudden increase of likely IDP encampments in the southwestern areas of El-Fasher through satellite imagery analysis. These new and newly expanded informal IDP settlements are in the southwest El-Fasher neighborhoods by 6 June 2024. Some of these images have been withheld for the human security of these populations. Simultaneously, likely civilian traffic consistent with displacement toward Zamzam IDP camp, approximately 12 km southwest of El-Fasher, has significantly increased. Yale HRL imagery analysts assessed approximately 70 vehicles present on the road to Zamzam on 6 June, which increased to approximately 100 vehicles on 11 June and doubled to approximately 200 vehicles on 12 June 2024.
Simultaneously, civilians are likely being displaced from IDP camps set up in schools and other community shelters across the southern and southeastern neighborhoods of El-Fasher. It is not clear when these IDP camps were set up. Yale HRL has documented a significant visible decrease of tents in these facilities during the same time period (31 May – 6 June). Buildings near these IDP camps have damaged due to conflict in recent days.
These findings are consistent with widespread open source reports that civilians are fleeing the escalating conflict in El-Fasher. Many of those able to escape El-Fasher are reportedly heading to Tawilah and Jebel Marra. These locations are some of the only localities in Darfur not under RSF control at present. However, according to “a number of local community leaders,” Tawilah and Jebel Marra are reportedly also facing “extremely complex humanitarian conditions” such as “shortages of food, medicine, and shelter tents.” Some civilians unable to escape El-Fasher are reportedly moving to the northern areas of the city, towards Abu Shouk IDP camp.
Humanitarian + Healthcare Facilities Looted and Damaged
Yale HRL finds indicators consistent with looting outside the South Hospital on the 11 and 12 June after MSF reported that RSF attacked the hospital. Following RSF’s attack on South Hospital, no major hospitals in El-Fasher are reported to be fully operational. There is no other facility in El-Fasher capable of providing a similar standard of care, especially for mass casualty events. MSF reported that RSF shelling and gun fire within the hospital killed several people in the hospital and injured others.
Open sources have also reported damage to the Sayyid Al-Shuhadaa Health Center in Al-Thawra neighborhood in southern El-Fasher due to RSF bombardment. Yale HRL cannot visually confirm the damage at this time.
Additionally, Yale HRL visually confirms damage to a community kitchen in Timbasi neighborhood. Damage to the kitchen is visible in satellite imagery analyzed by Yale HRL. Though the kitchen was reportedly closed due to shelling in the area, reported RSF munitions resulted in the deaths of eight people, including youth volunteers, along with injuries to several others. These community kitchens became operational around May 2023.
Abu Shouk’s Emergency Room reported on 12 June that a field survey identified cases of acute malnutrition in Abu Shouk camp, as well as inadequate access to water, food, shelter, and medications, the report says.
Damage
Yale HRL has identified 0.169 square kilometers, the equivalent of 13.52 football pitches, of conflict-related damage to El-Fasher between 3 - 12 June 2024. Since 21 May, Yale HRL has identified 2.088 square kilometers, 278.93 football pitches, of conflict-related damage in El-Fasher.
RSF has continued to systematically target the southern and northeastern neighborhoods of El-Fasher, including locations just south of Abu Shouk IDP camp. This damage is primarily to civilian dwellings.
Of the total conflict-related damage in El-Fasher since 21 March, 0.105 square kilometers occurred between 3 – 6 June 2024 and 0.064 square kilometers of damage occurred between 6 – 12 June 2024. The damage progression is increasingly moving inward (west) from the outer (east) edges of the city and is starting to progress northwest as well toward the Al-Salaam IDP camp.
Razing of Communities West of El-Fasher
Yale HRL has identified that eight communities razed by arson as evidenced by thermal scarring between 3– 12 June 2024. Three of these communities, Community 29, 30 and 31, are razed for the first time and six of the communities, Tikailat, Jughmar, Ammar Jadid, Jaranga, Shalakhna, and Community 31 have been attacked more than once. The communities which have been razed for the first time are located along the road northwest of El-Fasher. To date, Yale HRL has identified 43 communities north, northwest, west, and southwest of El-Fasher since 3 June which have been razed by arson as evidenced by thermal scarring. A significant number of the 43 total razed communities have been razed multiple times. These communities are reported to be essential to the agricultural production in the region.
Thermal scarring is a visual phenomenon that results from fire events, which is visible in multiple forms of remote sensing data. The thermal scarring patterns present in the affected communities in this report are consistent with those resulting from an intentional arson attack, in which individual structures were selected for burning.