COVID-19, Science and the Way Forward on Climate Change

May 07, 2020

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Robert Dubrow, MD, PhD, Professor of Epidemiology (Environmental Health Sciences); Faculty Director, Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Environmental Health Sciences

April 2, 2020

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00:01- So I'm gonna talk about COVID-19, Science,
00:04and the way forward on climate change,
00:06and this talk will be more conceptual
00:09and not so much presenting my research.
00:12So next slide, please.
00:16So firstly,
00:18there's really no evidence that climate change
00:20caused the COVID-19 pandemic.
00:23However we should note that climate change does cause
00:27increased spread of infectious diseases
00:29and could contribute to future pandemics.
00:32So simply put, mosquitoes, ticks,
00:35and other disease vectors do better in a warming world.
00:40Floods, which are more frequent under climate change,
00:43spread waterborne diseases, or infections, I should say.
00:47And with regard to future pandemics,
00:50climate change causes migration
00:53of both human and animal populations
00:56and this facilitates mixing of these populations
00:59which could contribute to viruses
01:02spilling over from animals to humans.
01:05Next slide, please.
01:08However,
01:10whoops, could you go back one?
01:12Thanks.
01:13However climate change and enhanced disasters
01:16will exacerbate the COVID-19 pandemic.
01:20I think that's almost guaranteed.
01:22So we could see floods in the Midwest.
01:25We almost certainly will see wildfires
01:27in California later in the season.
01:30Almost certainly we'll see hurricanes in the Caribbean
01:33along the Gulf Coast or along the Eastern U.S.,
01:36and those will produce climate refugees
01:41who will likely be housed in shelters.
01:44And of course, during a pandemic,
01:47we don't want people housed in shelters,
01:49that it's closed quarters
01:52and not a good idea.
01:55There could be destruction
01:56of healthcare system infrastructure
01:58by hurricanes, wildfires, et cetera,
02:02and we could see more overwhelming
02:04of the healthcare systems,
02:06the various healthcare systems
02:08with both disaster-related patients,
02:10in addition to COVID-19 patients.
02:15Another example of how climate change
02:18and COVID-19 pandemic could interact
02:22is the Locust plague, which you've probably heard about,
02:26that's going on in East Africa.
02:27It's been happening for the last several months.
02:30It's thought that very heavy rains in East Africa
02:34precipitated this locust plague,
02:36probably related to climate change.
02:41The Locust plague has been causing agricultural failures,
02:45leading to food insecurity,
02:47leading to malnourished people
02:49who have weakened immune systems
02:51who will be more susceptible to the virus.
02:55Next slide, please.
02:57So there are many parallels
02:59between the pandemic and climate change.
03:01So let me state some of those.
03:03So first, of course,
03:05there have been long-standing warnings
03:07by scientists that have not been heeded
03:10about the risk of pandemics and about climate change.
03:15And since they've not been heeded,
03:17prevention and preparedness efforts
03:19have been woefully inadequate.
03:22Secondly,
03:25for both the pandemic and climate change,
03:28they're both disasters for public health
03:31and for the economy, and we'll get back to the economy.
03:35Both prey on the most vulnerable,
03:37including the elderly, poor and people of color.
03:43For both, an effective response requires early action,
03:48federal government leadership, international cooperation,
03:53and unprecedented societal mobilization.
03:56So for climate change,
04:00these four
04:02responses
04:03have been
04:05extremely poor.
04:07I'd say actually
04:10somewhat better for the pandemic.
04:12We could have a discussion about that,
04:14but also a lot of failings for the pandemic as well.
04:18Next slide, please.
04:22So both crises are urgent, but on different timescales.
04:26For the pandemic,
04:28it will probably play out over a period
04:30of months to several years.
04:34We could say it's the worst acute
04:36public health crisis in a century.
04:39I would argue that it's probably
04:41not the worst, at least not yet,
04:43not the worst public health crisis in a century.
04:45We have to compare it with the tobacco epidemic,
04:49obesity, HIV.
04:55So it remains to be seen where this
04:57pandemic will be situated overall,
04:59but certainly as an acute public health crisis,
05:02it's the worst.
05:05With regard to climate change,
05:07the timescale is decades to centuries,
05:11and it's possibly the worst
05:12public health crisis in human history,
05:15depending on what we do over the next decade or two.
05:18Next slide, please.
05:22So both crises can be solved by science.
05:26For the pandemic, we've been talking a lot, of course,
05:29about physical distancing, testing,
05:32contact tracing, quarantining, PPE,
05:36ventilators,
05:38the need to develop through scientific research
05:41antiviral medications, as well as a vaccine.
05:47So I think it's pretty clear
05:49how science needs to be used to solve the pandemic.
05:53With regard to climate change,
05:55scientists have shown that it's real,
05:58that it's caused by humans,
06:00that it's harming public health,
06:02and that the longer we delay, the worse it will get.
06:06And through science, we actually know what the solution is,
06:10which essentially is to convert
06:11from a fossil-fuel-based economy
06:14to a renewable-energy-based economy.
06:17That's a tall order, but as we'll talk about, it's doable.
06:21Next slide, please.
06:25So, the world economy has taken a big hit, as you all know.
06:30It's gonna need to be rebuilt
06:33and I would suggest that there are
06:35two paths for rebuilding the world economy.
06:38There's the path backwards,
06:40in which we would double down on our fossil fuel economy,
06:43or the path forward,
06:45in which we would seize this unprecedented opportunity
06:49to build a renewable energy economy.
06:52Next slide.
06:55So first, the path backwards.
06:58This path would pit the environment against the economy.
07:02It's a tried-and-true tactic that's been used
07:08and we continue to rollback environmental regulations
07:11and suspend enforcement.
07:15There will be stimulus infrastructure
07:18and/or infrastructure packages,
07:20no matter what the path,
07:22and the path backwards,
07:24that we'd have a package that first has no
07:28environmental requirements for bailed-out industries,
07:31like airlines, cruise ships and industrial agriculture,
07:35and that, second,
07:36resuscitates and entrenches the fossil fuel industry,
07:41which as you know, is currently kind of on its heels,
07:44and
07:47the path backwards will attempt
07:49to do that for decades to come.
07:52Next slide, please.
07:54So then there's the path forward.
07:56So first, I would say,
07:59and this isn't the main part of the path forward,
08:02but I think it's important to note,
08:05we would retain what we've learned during the pandemic.
08:08So that would include
08:10reducing business travel by relying
08:13more heavily on video conferencing.
08:15We've all or a lot of us have really
08:18taken up video conferencing in a big way
08:20and we know how to do it and it's actually quite useful.
08:28And of course, if we reduce business travel,
08:30that reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
08:33We could see an increase in remote working,
08:35which many of us have been doing
08:37and we've got a taste for that.
08:40It's not that hard to do,
08:42and that would also decrease greenhouse gas emissions.
08:46We could produce more of our own goods,
08:48such as drugs, medical equipment,
08:51and personal protective equipment
08:54in order to reduce vulnerability
08:55to globalized supply networks.
08:58So that would reduce shipping
09:00and also greenhouse gas emissions
09:03and we can convert
09:06healthcare systems from single-use to reusable PPE
09:10masks, gowns, gloves.
09:13Single-use is tremendously wasteful
09:15and has a larger greenhouse gas footprint
09:19than doing reusable.
09:21Next slide, please.
09:25So the main element of the path forward
09:27is to heavily invest in renewable energy.
09:31So the foundation of a transition
09:34to a renewable energy economy
09:37is to generate electricity with renewable energy.
09:41So once that's done, we can electrify transportation,
09:45heating of buildings, and industry.
09:49All of that's gonna require a huge amount of electricity.
09:52So it's important to develop
09:54energy efficiency and conservation,
09:56which could include
09:58dense well-designed livable cities
10:02that are a lot more energy efficient,
10:05developing mass transportation,
10:07which is also much more energy efficient
10:09than
10:12single-occupied automobiles,
10:15and high-speed
10:17inter-city trains to replace regional air travel.
10:22Parenthetically air travel is one of the complicated issues
10:27with regard to accomplishing zero greenhouse gas emissions
10:31because we don't know yet how we're gonna fly airplanes
10:36without burning fossil fuels.
10:40Then the final element that I'll mention
10:42that's related to all this
10:43is carbon dioxide capture and storage.
10:48Unfortunately the world has dithered so long
10:51with regard to reducing greenhouse gas emissions
10:54that in addition to reducing emissions,
10:58we're gonna have to also
11:00capture and store CO2.
11:03Now that could be done through natural mechanisms
11:05by reforestation, and also agricultural soil management,
11:10which, unfortunately, that might not be enough.
11:13And so people are trying to develop technologies
11:17to remove CO2 from the atmosphere,
11:19and then store it underground.
11:21Those technologies are not there yet,
11:24but we could invest in research on those technologies.
11:30Next slide, please.
11:34Then the final part of the path forward that I see
11:37is to invest in science education and literacy.
11:41So the COVID-19 experience I think shows
11:43that people respond to clear
11:46science-based messages from trusted sources.
11:49So
11:51it hasn't been perfect, obviously,
11:53and we haven't seen those science-based messages
11:57from some of our leadership,
11:59but we have seen it from other leadership,
12:01a lot of the governors,
12:03from medical leadership, such as Doctor Fauci and others,
12:08and it's actually been to me quite remarkable
12:14how much adherence there has been
12:17to the physical distancing.
12:20Now we might see some degradation and change in that.
12:24There's gonna be political demagoguery
12:27and there's a lot of misinformation on the internet,
12:30but nevertheless I think
12:33we could point to a positive experience
12:34with regards to science communication for COVID-19.
12:39So we need to do the same thing with climate change
12:41and we need to educate the general public, policy makers,
12:45medical and public health professionals,
12:47and really students at all levels about climate change,
12:50about its public health impacts
12:52and the feasibility of both solutions.
12:55Next slide, please.
12:58So this is
13:00a little complicated,
13:01but I think it's an important slide.
13:03So I'll walk you through it.
13:06This is looking at generation of electricity
13:09by different types of renewable energy
13:12and it's comparing the cost in dollars per kilowatt hour
13:18on the y-axis
13:19between 2010
13:22and 2018.
13:24It's important to note the kind of light tan coloring,
13:29and that's the fossil fuel cost range.
13:34Now, just to go through this quickly, then,
13:38you could see that for bioenergy, geothermal, and hydro,
13:42that those are all at the lower end
13:44of the fossil fuel cost range.
13:47Then very notably for solar
13:50voltaics,
13:51between 2010
13:53and 2018, we saw a dramatic drop in costs.
13:57We're now, in 2018,
13:59the cost is in the low range of the fossil fuel cost range.
14:03Concentrated solar power,
14:05which is another type of solar power,
14:08that I won't go into the details,
14:10there's been a very dramatic drop as well,
14:13although it's actually still a bit
14:15above the fossil fuel cost range.
14:18And then for offshore wind,
14:19has gone down to the mid range for fossil fuels
14:23and onshore wind is
14:25at the lower end now in terms of the range of fossil fuels.
14:29So the point I'd like to make here is
14:32that fossil fuel advocates
14:35say renewable energy would be nice,
14:38but it's really not feasible, it's not cost effective,
14:41but the fact is that that's not true,
14:44that we've reached a point technologically
14:47that it is feasible to make this transition
14:50from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
14:52There are still a few technological
14:56improvements that need to be made,
14:57such as battery storage of energy,
15:01but it's really there
15:04and so this is very feasible.
15:07It just requires political will
15:10and the necessary investments.
15:13Final slide, please.
15:16So I'd like to end
15:18with this quote that, "optimism is a moral imperative,"
15:23and that's because pessimism is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
15:28So I think
15:29we have a long road ahead with regard to climate change,
15:33but it's important to have optimism
15:36to motivate and sustain our work.
15:39So, thank you.